Wednesday 3rd January 2024
First and a second…
A winner and a frustrating second from our two tips yesterday, with Idyllic providing an early boost as expected as she bounced back to her September form with Lisa riding the mare out to a smooth 3 length victory at $2.10.
We were very confident of Oh No Mikki completing the multi for us, but he just got too far back and failed to overhaul the $8 shot on the run-in to run second.
We’ve got a round dozen from the book today with five from the two NZ meetings at Te Aroha and Greymouth, where the heavy ground will affect some of these runners, and a bit more value on offer today, let’s have a look…
Midweek Dirty Dozen…
BIT NOSY
Te Aroha, 4
Only win came at Otaki a year ago tomorrow, and really done little since apart from a big odds second at Tauranga in October. Not sure she can get past this hotpot fav, but does have the Wizard of Woz onboard, still, EW best at $8.50…
BET: 3 units ew
MARENGO
Te Aroha, 6
And Kennedy sticks on this $2.60 fav, who impressed with a debut win at Puke last April, then maybe didn’t handle the heavy at Te Rapa six weeks later before heading to the paddock for 228 days. Resumes today, has fewer convictions than these, looks set to resume with a win.
BET: 10 unit win
JUNE BUG, MORMAIRE
Greymouth, 7
JB resumed from an almost 8 month break in Nov needing the run and tried to lead all the way 26 days ago just fading to run second at $10 SP, but will have gained good upside from that, all wins on soft, but heavy?
Mormaire has gone well on heavy previously, pretty consistent mare without winning too many, thereabouts again today round the $8 mark.
BET: Can back both 3 units ew, exotics
TELLING TALES
Greymouth, 8
On the 4 day backup since a better showing at Kurow on Sunday for fourth, though is 2:0-0 on heavy. $16 on offer…
BET: 2 units ew
KERMANTIC
Eagle Farm, 6
Won a couple for us mid-year and has run two close fourths this prep. Has won third-up previously, Loy sticks, and he’s a live EW bet at $12.
BET: 4 units ew
REAL GUN
Seymour, 7
Was going well prior to the heavy track failure at Wodonga two back, and bounced back with a solid fourth back on good going 17 days ago at Bendigo. He’s placed three times on soft, can get back in the run, but watch for him late, $9 on offer and another that rates an EW bet in an open betting event.
BET: 3 units ew
KEW PLAYER, NUMPTY
Seymour, 8
If KP can muster some early speed then there’s a win coming soon. Blitzed home from dead last here 13 days ago to run third for us at SP $14, earning a next-time status, worth another chance at $10, Noonan a nice booking…
Numpty resumed at Geelong 19 days ago after a long spell and needed the run. Has placed 2 from 3 second up and also at this distance, and hold a 52% career placing record.. $21 on offer and Billy Egan up top will help, don’t dismiss.
BET: Can back both 3 units ew, and they’d certainly spice up the exotics in a very open betting race…
SHE’S UNUSUAL
Kembla Grange, 6
One win in NZ and they sent her over to Aussie where she debuted 19 days ago running second to the hot fav. No disgrace in that run, and she gets back to the heavy track as $3.10 fav today and gets Schiller up top, winner for me…
BET: 10 unit win
TYDEUS
Mount Gambier, 6
Big drop in grade after a couple of ordinary runs at the BM64/68 level. Normally on-pace, the drop back to the 908m dash may well suit, EW shot at $6.
BET: 3 units ew
WINNING ACES
Belmont, 6
We thought the extra 200m would suit this perennial backmarker after a third and fourth to start this prep, but he went straight to the back and stayed there 14 days ago at Ascot. Drawn well, but will need to make it count, $10 on offer.
BET: 3 units ew
