Tuesday 5th November 2024
I don’t like Mondays…
We couldn’t deliver an entrée for you yesterday into today’s biggest racing day in Australasia, but there’s plenty on the menu for Melbourne Cup day!!
We’ve got 13 from the book in NZ and 21 from Aussie, plus our take on chances in the Cup…
It’s Melbourne Cup Day, here’s today’s NZ tips…
Aquilifer
Ellerslie R3
Better 24 days ago running fourth after needing the resuming run in September. Tends to run on or near the pace, so the drop back to 1100m should suit, $10 on offer, worth EW at that.
BET: 4 units ew
Let Fly, Jack In The Box
Ellerslie R5
Let Fly won this T&D late September but failed at Taupo 25 days ago up in grade and not handling the heavy going, so a forgive for that. Sam sticks, rates an EW chance at $10.
JITB better last two runs, this harder, $23 on offer, EW.
BET: LF 4 units ew, JITB 2 units ew
Habana, Testify Me
Ellerslie R8
Fully expected Habana to feature a month back at Te Rapa ago but Wazza had him too far back and he finished well for eighth without threatening. The apprentice hopped on for a fast finishing second here 10 days ago. Up in grade but up in distance to the 2000m for the first time should suit his race pattern Wazza back up top, watch for him late in a very close betting race where he’s a $4.20 co-fav of four horses.
Testify Me has had two runs this prep without threatening, EW shot at $10.
BET: Habana 5 units ew, TM 2 units ew
Vistown, Global Currency
Ellerslie R9
Vistown was a very encouraging third on resuming at Ellerslie in late September, she’s very consistent and while a perennial backmarker, she has a good finish in her, so we expected the extra 200m at Tauranga a month ago work in her favour but all she manage was a fifth. Sam Spratt sticks on this one too, could be value at $16.
GC resumes after a 213 day break but could really do with heavy going, he’s 7:0-0 on good. Trialled twice and finished last in both, so it’s a small EW bet today.
BET: V 3 units ew, GC 2 units ew
Eye Spy
Wingatui R3
Resumed 18 days ago with a close sixth here with a big run from the rear, will have benefited from that, and the rise to 1400m should suit. We rate him a decent EW chance at $7.50.
BET: 5 units ew
Lochnaberry
Wingatui R4
Two runs this prep will have sharpened her up. Back in grade, up in distance, capable of a decent finish and can make the frame in this at $9. Jockey has been onboard for 3 of her 4 wins.
BET: 4 units ew
The Grey Goose, Henry Hubber, Capo Dell Impero
Wingatui R9
TGG resumes from a 204 day spell and is 2:2 first-up. Two eye-catching wins early in the year from impossibly far back, will need to be a bit more in touch over the shorter 1400m but has won at the distance and also at this track, $7.50 on offer.
HH has been poor in two runs this prep but has won two out of three third-up. $17 shot in this.
CDI also resumes, big class-dropper, super T&Ds but no form first-up, $23 today.
BET: TGG 5 units ew, other two 2 units ew
Missoni
Wingatui R10
Heavy tracker who flew home in March, earning a next-time tag, and she won under Tina for us in September, then ran dead last three weeks later on good ground. We knew she needed some give in the ground 18 days ago and she found it soft enough to her liking as she toughed it out down the home straight for an nice win at $11.00 for us. Up in grade but Ashvin sticks and she gets a heavy track, so rates a chance at $10.
BET: 4 units ew
Our Melbourne Cup tips…
I like the chances of Sea King, who won the Doomben Cup, if he gets the 2 miles he’ll go close. Brought to Aussie as a companion horse for Docklands but unexpectedly gets a chance at making history, $14 at the moment.
Buckaroo is class, Waller/Moreira a great combo. He ran second in the Caulfield Cup to Duke De Sessa but more significantly a close second to currently the best-rated racehorse in the world in Via Sestina in the Turnbull. Again if he gets the distance he should figure prominently, $7 right now.
Others to include in exotics are Vauban, Absurde, Zardozi, Okita Sushi, The Map, Onesmoothoperator, Interpretation, Land Legend.
BET: Can back main two 5 units ew.
Work your exotics around these two winning…
Rest of Aussie today…
Bifrost
Flemington R3
Former Kiwi grey gelding, mixes his runs somewhat and usually gets back and finishes on late. Jumps in grade but also distance so could feature late, $26 on offer.
BET: 3 units ew
Newfoundland, Point Nepean
Flemington R5
Newfoundland is an Irish import who caught the eye on his third run in Aus a month ago with Tim Clark producing a top ride for him to win with some style. Produced an identical run to win at Warwick Farm three weeks ago and comes south with a real chance in this as the in-form J Kah hops on. Up in grade and distance, but should be in the finish, watch late, $8.00 on offer.
Point Nepean resumes after going well over hurdles during the winter, might find this a bit tasty, $31 today.
BET: Newfoundland 5 units ew, PN 2 units ew
Mollynickers, Cindy Falls
Flemington R9
Mollynickers put in a better one last time out, gets back early and could pop up late, $19 shot.
CF has been struggling in this grade, not sure she can feature in this as $61 outsider.
BET: M 3 units ew, CF 2 units ew
Carribean King
Randwick R2
Been a while since a win but pops up regularly fro a place, so EW in this at $15.
BET: 3 units ew
Chorlton Lane
Randwick R3
Close up in the past five runs without winning but can win this back in grade. Watch for him late in this as $2.40 fav.
BET: 8 unit win
Gringotts, Sky Lab
Randwick R5
Gringotts drops in grade for The Big Dance after two very good seconds, great all-round stats, unbeaten this trip. Drawn in the carpark and will need to get across but if he lands somewhere handy he’ll be hard to keep out, $3.80 fav.
Sky Lab resumes after 5 months, has won 3 from 7 first-up, great T&Ds, not ruling him out even at $21.
BET: Gringotts 10 unit win, SL 3 units ew, exotics
Headwall
Randwick R9
Only missed the frame once in eleven, great stats, down a touch in grade, will be zooming home late as $5 second fav.
BET: 5 units ew
Contributingfactor
Randwick R10
Resuming from a long break, been a while since he won, looks too hard for him as $61 outsider.
BET: 2 units ew
Handshake
Echuca R2
Back in grade but will need to lift, first time over the 2 miles but is capable of a decent finish, $11 on offer.
BET: 3 units ew
Vesper Lynd
Sunshine Coast R3
Went in the book a year ago on debut at Ipswich, when she got trapped in that race and looked the winner if she got out. Resumed in August with a third then a second at Eagle Farm, and only got caught late 16 days ago here. Open race and a chance to break maidens at $6.
BET: 5 units ew
Markwell Dreamer
Muswellbrook R2
Mixes his runs and generally gets back but he can’t afford to do that in this 900m dash. EW at $13.
BET: 3 units ew
Ghost Doctor
Wangaratta R5
Not far off in all six runs this prep, great chance to rack up an overdue win as $3.40 fav.
BET: 5 units ew
King Of The Bounty
Wangaratta R6
Last four runs do not make good reading, hard to back with much confidence at $10.
BET: 2 units ew
Devine Miss
Canberra R4
Another with very consistent form this prep, the push out to 1300m will suit, EW at $9.
BET: 4 units ew
Mountain Chatter
Canberra R7
Won his first two and has finished fast this prep for two places, rise to 1200m has him right in this at $8.
BET: 5 units ew
Sir Simon
Hobart R4
Faded late over the 1880m two months ago, back to 1430m will make this frontrunner hard to catch, $8 looks value.
BET: 4 units ew
Cornelian Bay
Hobart R5
Consistent placegetter this prep, should take his chance today as $2.60 fav.
BET: 8 unit win
Mombasa
Geraldton R5
Backmarker resuming from a 212 day spell, tidy stats and way back in grade gives him a chance at $16.
BET: 3 units ew
