Tuesday 26th December 2023
75%
Morning all, hope your Christmas Day celebrations went well!
Our four tips (with one scratching) produced a couple of seconds in La Opcion ($1.50) and Chokito ($2.00) with Fetch a rather disappointing fourth…
We’ve got 27 from the book today, mostly from the three meetings in NZ and the two big ones in Aussie, let’s have a look!!
NZ today…
JOHNY JOHNY, NOT GUILTY
Pukekohe, 3
JJ only fifth here a month ago but had won his previous four. On pacer, second fav here at $3.20 and back in grade, can give them something to chase down. NG another one down in grade and she’s very capable and can figure here at $5.50 in a small field.
BET: JJ 8 unit win, include both in exotics.
TOKYO TYCOON, JUST AS SHARP, DECEMBER
Pukekohe, 6
We’ve got three in this competitive race, plus a fav who’s struck some excellent form this prep. TT was a beaten odds-on fav 10 days ago at Te Rapa, and will be looking to make amends if he can get the 1400m.
JAS went in the book last month with a dominant win, with the trainer recommending we watch him any of the Spring 3yo races, and he duly obliged 11 days later at Rotorua at $10 for us with a last to first win, can’t leave him out at $8.
December is unbeaten in two, boomed home for a debut win last month then backed it up at Wanganui a month ago at odds on. Done nothing wrong, can go on with it, $16 is value…
BET: Can back all these 5 units ew if you like, but must be included in your exotics…
BADGERINGDAWITNESS
Pukekohe, 7
Not sure this is his race. Mixing form a little, prefers it heavy and hasn’t placed this way round to date. $23 on offer.
BET: 2 units ew
AEGON, MALI STON
Pukekohe, 9
Aegon back from Aussie racing and ran home well to run fourth in the débâcle at Trentham 17 days ago suggesting he’ll go well over the 2050m here today as the $4 second fav. Mali Ston also finished well last time out at G3, value in the race at $34.
BET: Aegon 5 units ew, MS 3 units ew, exotics
GEE STRING
Otaki, 3
Won well at big odds for us at Wanganui two back and tried to go all the way 13 days ago at similar odds but ran a brave fourth. $7 in a very even betting race.
BET: 5 unit win
MILLEFIORI, HENRY HUBBER, AMBERECHO
Wingatui, 6
These three sitting in a similar place in the market, between $10 and $13 in what is a pretty open race.
BET: All 3 units ew, exotics
NORTIBUTNICE, THE GREY GOOSE
Wingatui, 7
NBN hadn’t missed the top two in eight races prior to the G3 Breeders last time out at Riccy, and though seventh, was less than two lengths from the winner. One slight niggle as she’s unraced in heavy, trialled up with a win 13 days ago, but still looks awfully hard to beat as $3.60 fav.
TGG perennial backmarker but just take a look at her last two runs, a fourth and a third from near-last in both runs. She’s won on heavy and hard not to see her in the frame again as $4 second fav.
BET: Back both 5 units ew, 10 unit quinella
MORMAIRE
Wingatui, 8
Over 18 months since her last salute but she does regularly feature in the finish and will enjoy the heavy conditions. $9.50 on offer, so EW for her.
BET: 3 units ew
Aussie today…
PLENTY OF AMMO
Caulfield, 4
Well-named classy mare who’s three from three and heading for brighter things… She’s won with some arrogance, and is today’s sell-the-farm tip at $1.40
BET: 10 unit win
SOCIAL CONSCIENCE
Caulfield, 5
Rarely far off, and wouldn’t totally dismiss, EW shot at $26…
BET: 3 units ew
EN FRANCAIS, MANKAYAN
Caulfield, 6
EF only missed the top four twice in 17 and the drop in grade and distance should suit today, $6.50 on offer. Mankayan resumes after 8 months away following a fail in the WBool Cup in May, but had previously been going pretty well. Goes on any ground, good first-up stats and track stats, chance at $12 in this small field.
BET: 5 unit win both, exotics
YONCE, SEBONACK
Caulfield, 7
Yonce reeled off six wins from her first six races before a fourth in a G1. Back from the paddock after a mammoth 626 days, where a nasty injury had threatened her career. Could be a tune-up for her, this is a bit short, but will be having something on her at $12, watch the betting…
Sebonack’s form has fallen right away, and he looks tested here at $34…
BET: Yonce 4 units ew, S 2 units ew
LE CHOCOLAT
Randwick, 1
This is a mate of mine’s horse, and ran three good races in his first prep before heading for the unkindest cut of all… Came through that OK and has trialled up nicely, barn is pretty keen, so is the market as he heads the other three Waller horses as $3 fav in this small field.
BET: 10 unit win, anchored in all exotics…
DARK DESTROYER, REGAL LION
Randwick, 7
Two outsiders in this field, $21/$23 on offer. DD third up, never got into either run first up but if he had reproduce earlier career form would be in this. RL resumed with a last placing at big odds 45 days ago, hard to recommend at $23…
BET: DD 3 units ew, RL 2 units ew
STELLAR POWER
Sunshine Coast, 4
Last or near-last in his last five, they keep sending him out though, interest only at $51.
BET: 2 units ew
BADDA BOOM BABY
Newcastle, 6
Went in the book Boxing Day last year, dead last and sprinted home to win by nearly two lengths. Did it again a month later but has run a series of sixth places both in trials and on the track in between a couple of spells. Resumes after 164 days away, has won forst-up, has won T&D and also under this jockey. EW as $6.50 third fav…
BET: 3 units ew
