Today’s Tips: Saturday 29th January 2022
A second, a third and a fourth provided scant return yesterday, but today’s a whole new day, we usually run hot on Saturdays, it’s Australia Stakes day at the Valley, and with 19 from the book, let’s see what we’ve got!
NZ tips up first as usual, Aussie tips now, and late MV qadi a bit later…
TRENTHAM
Race 1: SEA MONARCH was noted early December with a gritty win at Awapuni, not been far away in next two when up in grade. Drops a grade today and up to 1400m will suit, good ew bet at $6.
BET: 3 units ew
Race 4: GEE STRING blew ‘em away first up in June and has been very consistent since. Likes this distance, and is another with good ew credentials at $10.
BET: 3 units ew
Race 5: TEXAS TEA was backed in a month ago at Taupo, fell out of the gates but finished superbly under Sam to win. Ran last in a black type event at Ellerslie three ago, but with Sam back onboard, he’s today’s sleeper at $41. Would deffo spice up the exotics…
BET: 3 units ew
Race 6: AVALENE produced a grinding win on debut in November, and has had two runs since, producing a third last time out. Up in grade today, but another one with the winning rider back onboard in Vinnie Colgan, and yet another bookie-buster at $26.
BET: 3 units ew
Race 7: MALI STON and TWO ILLICIT compete in the very competitive Thorndon Mile, and they’re up against some good animals here… We’ve been following TI since October, and she’s been consistent with a win and two thirds in this grade. MS is chasing a fifth consecutive win under Sam, and this is his biggest task to date. Include both in exotics…
BET: 5 units ew Mali Ston looks the value, 5 unit win on TI if you prefer her…
Race 8: BENTAYGA got up for us at Awapuni in the grade three weeks back, Kozzi sticks, and he’ll be right there at the death despite the weight rise. At $4.80/$2, he’s an ew must.
BET: 5 units ew
RICCARTON
Race 6: SOUTHERN OCEAN is untried on soft going, but otherwise has fine stats for this. Disappointing run last time out, but has won at Listed level and has a great record at track and distance. Good betting race, and he can bounce back here at $6.50…
BET: 4 units ew
Race 7: SACRED GIANT is ex-HK (just the one race) but won on debut in NZ at odds-on. Has been well-supported in subsequent runs and will run around at about the $5 mark.
BET: 3 units ew
MOONEE VALLEY
Race 1: RIOYUKI flew home from near-last at Kyneton in October to win, and she hasn’t been far away in her last two, despite bad draws. Better drawn here, where you need to be on the speed with that short finishing straight. Looks like running fav today in the opener at around $3.50.
BET: 5 unit win
Race 2: SWEET KAROLINA is a consistent mare, and finished well at odds last time at Flem for a third for us at SP $10 after getting stuck in a bad spot. Good stats for this, and Johnny Allen sticks, win chance in this small field at around $4.50.
BET: 6 unit win
Race 5: LUNA CAT noted in early December winning as she liked, not disgraced when moving up in grade at Flem and Caulfield last two. Only missed the frame once in six outings, looks a great value ew bet today at $7.
BET: 4 units ew
Race 7: MARABI is unbeaten in five starts, and has won by a total of 23.5 lengths. If she handles the WFA she looks hard to beat… MARIAMIA murdered ‘em by 7 lengths here back in November and has been close up since, even her last run here a week ago when eighth of nine, she was only 1.6 lengths away to Galgani. Biggest test to date but could provide some flavour to the exotics…
BET: Marabi 10 unit win at red figures, Maramia 2 units ew at $41 (365).
Race 8: COSMIC RHAPSODY ($9) and LUNAR HERO ($23) contest this one for us, both showing similar patterns in spacing out their wins… CR bounced back at Flem last week with a close second at SP $8, while LH ran a close fourth here in a 955m dash late last month. Both horse capable of figuring in the finish here, so include in your exotics.
BET: 3 units ew both horses, maybe a cheeky 5 unit quinella?
ROSEHILL
Race 4: AND WE DANCED is a Kiwi export, and has run two seconds in Aus, beaten last week at Randwick by an outrageous long shot, with the rest nowhere. Gets her chance to atone today at $2.80 in a small field…
BET: 10 unit win
SAPPHIRE COAST
Race 7: PAHANG is keeping us waiting for the faith showed in him by his trainer a few runs back. Hard to see him winning the get-out here, could run a place at $21.
BET: 2 units ew
TAMWORTH
Race 5: C’MON AND LOVE ME is very consistent, caught the eye back in May with a very good finish, and has won twice for us since at $10 and three weeks back at $4.50, and can’t see why she won’t win again…
BET: 8 unit win
