Thursday 9th November 2023
Back to Earth…
Was always gonna be hard to follow Tuesday, a lone second from Sir Simon was all we could muster from our five from the book yesterday…
Different story today, Oaks Day at Flemington, always a popular event, and we have 16 from the book today, including from two meetings in NZ at Taupo and Ashburton. We go again!!
Sweet Sixteen on Oaks Day…
DAJIEDA
Taupo, 4
Had her debut run for third here in September marked down as promising, and she returns today as the $3.30 fav for this. That run will have done her a world of good, and she can go on with it here. McNab sticks.
BET: 8 unit win
LUXURIANT, BIT NOSY
Taupo, 7
Lux has been close in recent runs, finishing well 14 days ago at Rotorua for fourth. Looks a solid EW bet back to this grade, $5.50 on offer. Really gave BN a shot 12 days ago after the previous solid second at Tauranga, but after getting away well she folded to run next to last. Gets Joe back up top, drops in grade a touch, EW for her too at $14.
BET: Lux 5 units ew, BN 3 units ew, exotics
TELLING TALES
Ashburton, 8
One win from 26 tells the tale here, returning form a three month break. Does have some form first-up and at this distance, but he’s the outsider here at $34…
BET: 2 units ew
MORMAIRE
Ashburton, 10
Two runs for the new barn have been much improved and she can feature in this open betting event, $10 looks tasty…
BET: 3 units ew
MATRIARCH ROSE
Flemington, 2
Went in the book in Sept as a next-timer after a solid finish at Bendigo, duly obliged in a Ballarat BM58 before hopping up the BM70, finishing well for third as odds-on fav. The jump up to 1700mm looks ideal, and she could be the sleeper in this at $8, scratched a few days ago, so worth following here.
BET: 5 units ew
CHANDON BURJ
Flemington, 4
She’s been very consistent this prep, running second to Junipal in the Seymour Cup 18 days ago. Shinn up top, down in grade, time to break through, watch her descending late, $6 makes it an easy EW punt.
BET: 5 units ew
APPIN GIRL
Flemington, 7
Went into the book on debut in April when she simply cruised in at Caloundra as fav. Repeated the dose later that month at Eagle Farm before running a very close third in a G2 at Doomben. The resuming run 26 days ago had excuses as she got held up in the run, it was an eye-catcher and noted. Man of the Moment M Zahra sticks, can’t believe she’s $18, get on early cos she’s a real chance today!
BET: 5 units ew
GREGOLIMO, TEEWATERS, VASMEE
Flemington, 9
Fav Gregolimo looks hard to beat here ($2.20), both runs in Aussie have been full of merit and the drop back in both grade and distance look ideal. Winner for me. Our other two are occupy the outsiders’ positions at $71 and $101, and while they’ve had their moments, this looks a bit hard…
BET: Gregolimo 10 unit win, other two 2 units ew interest only but could spice up exotics with the anchored fav…
DRIFT NET
Hawkesbury, 4
Got her hoof on the till after two seconds, Zac Lloyd a positive, market says race in two, but we’ll stick with our girl as $3.00 second fav.
BET: 8 unit win
AMARANTZ, FRANKIE’S ME DAD
Hawkesbury, 5
Amarantz noted as next-timer early October with a huge finish from almost last in a 17 horse field to run a close second, but never came on in the run 19 days ago. Bit flat last time but rise to 2100m looks suitable, $4.60 in a small field, watch late! FMD looks tested but has won at this distance… $7.50 on offer
BET: A 8 unit win, FMD 2 unit win, exotics
VALIEVA
Gawler, 3
Monstrous from last on debut at big odds, then spelled for two months. Well back when resuming at Morks, then ran a tidier fourth here 13 days ago. Up to 1200m will suit, another watch late, $12 on offer, this isn’t strong…
BET: 4 units ew
ABB ROY
Ipswich, 6
Of course, the old girl out again for #143, throws the odd win and place our way, outsider here at $41, gotta have a go…
BET: 2 units ew
