Thursday 26th December 2024
Let’s box on!
Here we are, back after a day of self-indulgence for a huge day of racing on Boxing Day!
Eleven in NZ and twelve from Aussie, here’s the Kiwi tips, Aussie to follow…
NZ today…
Marengo
Ellerslie R3
Only missed the first two twice in eight runs, resumed 26 days ago from a huge 245 day break for en eye-catching fast-finishing fourth here. Wazza sticks, the extra 100m suits, stats are super, can’t see why he won’t be featuring in the finish, $12 is juicy!
BET: 5 units ew
Karman Line
Ellerslie R4
Fully expected her to be in the finish 12 days ago at Puke but she got back ealry and stayed there, better than that. Masa jumps back on, he’s won 2 from 4 onboard, expecting a better show today, $5.50 in a tight betting race…
BET: 5 units ew
Tikemyson, Let Fly
Ellerslie R6
TMS is in superb form, and though this is a step up both in class and distance, he should be thereabouts in another open betting event as $6.50 second fav.
Let Fly loves the T&D, as proven 26 days ago with a dominant, gritty win. Also up in grade, but if he employs the same tactics today, will give them something to catch, $10 on offer…
BET: Both 5 units ew, exotics
Yaldi
Ellerslie R7
Impressive on debut in April this year, then ran third next race at Flemington. Ran eighth in a G3 at Caulfield after a break, then returned to Te Rapa after another break 12 days ago to run a close second. This is a jump in grade but he’ll be fitter and McNab sticks, easy EW punt at $9.50.
BET: 5 units ew
Honey Badger
Ellerslie R8
She was tough late October at Te Aroha to break maidens and while she could only run seventh here 19 days ago she finished well, suggesting the rise to the mile would suit. The wetter the better, but still a strong EW chance at $19…
BET: 3 units ew
Ladies Man
Ellerslie R9
The fav will be all the rage here but LM came with a withering run to win Capt Cook 19 days ago under Opie, and looks better value at $7.50. Consistent in the grade and at this distance, Opie sticks.
BET: 4 units ew
Inmyshadow
Otaki R2
Gets back and usually makes ground late but needs to improve to figure in this, $10 shot.
BET: 2 units ew
Eye Spy
Wingatui R5
Sat just behind the pace a month ago this class and distance at Ascot Park and rattled home at nice odds for us for the win. Couldn’t quite back that up 12 days ago same T&D and ran second, and this looks a similar race, $4.80 on offer.
BET: 5 units ew
Buoyant, Millefiori
Wingatui R6
Buoyant was due to run at the abandoned Gore meeting a few days ago. Early career stats were outstanding, but seven runs in Aussie saw him last or close to last but in higher grades but resumed in NZ at Wingatui in October with a tidy fourth. McNab jumped on three weeks days ago and he finished well for another fourth, then repeated the dose 25 days ago at Cromwell, just fading late. Looks poised to break through if he can find some early speed, and while he’s won 5 of his 6 races on soft, he’s 0 for 2 on heavy, that’s a concern as there’s others who are proven. $6.50 on offer.
Millefiori ran a better race 8 days ago at Ashburton, looming up late to finish sixth. She does not like company, so they’ll try and get her out from that draw and into some clear air. Has form on heavy, so EW chance at $14.
BET: 3 units ew
Aussie today…
Rumours Abound, Cosmic Rhapsody
Caulfield Heath R3
I like the way Rumours Abound is progressing, and while the fav looks tough to beat, RA can take this out as the $3.50 second fav in a small field.
CR is a consistent backmarker but defied that to get home over the 1000m at Ballarat 4 months ago. Has reasonable stats first-up but this is a jump in grade, $61.
BET: RA 8 unit win, CR for exotics
Ersa
Caulfield Heath R5
Her nine length win to break maidens in October last year was top notch and has run in G1 and G3 company since before running two close seconds at the end of last prep. Resumed after 192 days, and she cruised up in the last 200m to win nicely for us at $5.50/$1/.90, more to come we feel and her she is as $3 second fav.
BET: 10 unit win
Drift Net
M11 Randwick R4
Ticking a few boxes, time for her to get back in the winner’s stall after four close placings, $2.50 second fav, can win, small field.
BET: 10 unit win
Naval College, Rustic Steel, Sky Lab, Gentileschi
Randwick R7
Very open race with four from the book in this.
NC has been going round OK and has nice T&D stats for this, $8.
RS has been close up in some big fields after a win at Hawkesbury in November, $10.
SL not going well enough, $61
G big jump for mare, outsider’s chance at $71.
BET: RS 4 units ew, G 2 units ew, exotics with the rest
Hayai Mesu
Morphettville R1
Getting plenty of races, needs to step up and win one for us, $4.20 in a small field.
BET: 6 unit win
Divakara
Sunshine Coast R1
Two seconds this prep, surely wins this as $1.65 fav.
BET: 10 unit win
The Light Fandango
Ballina R6
Not far off this prep and this doesn’t look a strong field, $4 second fav in a small field.
BET: 6 unit win
Rudhyar
Albany R1
Huge class dropper, racing out west now and should be too good for these after his returning run, $2.80 fav.
BET: 10 unit win
