Saturday 5th October 2024
A winner and two seconds…
We seem to be cursed with abandonments at the moment, with last night’s Moonee Valley meeting curtailed after just three races, knocking out two of our more favoured selections…
From our six remaining tips we produced a first and two seconds.
Merchant Flyer (10 units ew) went in the book just five days ago with a stunning 4 length win and repeated the dose under Jimmy Orman at a very short $1.30, but hey, it’s better than the bank!!
Eloheh (5 units ew) is super-consistent, and second-up she ran a nice second paying $2.25, one to watch, she’ll win soon.
And Winchester Rifle (2 units ew) reversed some very indifferent recent form to show why he won a few for us in the middle of last year, paying $3.30 the place, maybe he’s turned the corner, and we’ll be keeping an eye on him next time…
With five from NZ and 20 from Aussie, it’s a cracking day’s racing, let’s have a look, NZ first, Aussie to come, winners galore today we feel!!
Saturday’s NZ racing…
Vistown
Tauranga R6
Very encouraging third on resuming at Ellerslie 14 days ago, she’s very consistent and while a perennial backmarker, she has a good finish in her, so the extra 200m will work in her favour today. Fitter, handles the heavy, the in-form Sam Spratt sticks, that makes her a very viable EW punt as the $4.40 second fav.
BET: 5 units ew
Ladies Man, Mustang Valley
Tauranga R7
LM goes well on any surface and will be fitter second-up as $5.50 second fav.
Andrew Forsman has MV as his best horse today, and she drops in grade from the G2 fifth she ran six weeks ago in the Arrowfield. Good second-up stats (6:2-2), that makes her hard to beat in this as $2.6fav.
BET: MV 10 unit win, LM 5 units ew
Takeiteasy
Tauranga R9
Ran last when resuming a month ago at Matamata. One of his two wins has come second-up, drops in class, but will need to improve to figure at $16.
BET: 3 units ew
Jack In The Box
Tauranga R10
Looked like he’d turned the corner when backed and winning for us at Wanganui in July but subsequent form has been pretty dire. Likes it heavy, drops in grade, but another one who’ll need to find some form in order to find the frame here, $12 on offer…
BET: 3 units ew
Saturday’s Aussie racing…
First Settler, Reserve Bank
Flemington R5
This is a good race, with our two first and second favs, and hard to separate to be honest… FS stepping through the grades nicely and only beaten by Growing Empire 21 days ago. RB stepping up again, unbeaten in two, the win 15 days ago was impressive.
BET: Just got FS slightly ahead, so 10 unit win, RB 5 units ew, 10 unit quinella
Plenty Of Ammo, Coin Toss
Flemington R6
POA resumes from a 284 day hiatus, won four on the trot prior to that and has trialled up for this twice under Coffey. Up in grade, Coffey onboard, and with only a dollar between the top five in the market, she can get some of this at $6.50.
CT also returns from a break, 162 days, is ex-Singapore and has nice first-up and distance stats. Couple of soft trials, gets Jye up top and rates a chance at $11.
BET: POA 5 units ew, CT 3 units ew
Berkshire Breeze
Flemington R7
Got too far back in the Archer 21 days ago and flew home late. Won’t make the same mistake today, Maher has a great record in this and looks great value at $4. Wins for me…
BET: 5 units ew
Francesco Guardi, Bankers Choice
Flemington R8
Top three in betting look like dominating the Turnbull, our two are at $61 and $81, place best for them
BET: Both 2 units ew
Mollynickers
Flemington R10
Not too bad on resuming, second-up stats good, Carleen sticks, so rates an EW shot at $31.
BET: 3 units ew
Snow In May
Randwick R6
The scratching of Autumn Glow leaves our filly as the $2.10 fav, up to the mile and looks the winner.
BET: 10 unit win
Democracy Manifest, Rediener
Randwick R9
Waller’s got seven entries in this, two of which are ours…
DM Group 2 winner third up, and fitter for that, likes the T&D and McEvoy jumps on. A succulent Chinese meal on the way, $23 shot.
Rediener ran a nice fourth at Rosehill 21 days ago, impressive after a 336 day break, rates an EW chance at $31.
BET: Both 3 units ew
Feathertop
Doomben R2
Classy Irish mare who won second-up in Aus at this T&D 24 days ago with a big finish. Mallyon sticks and she’s the value runner in this at $14.
BET: 5 units ew
Headwall
Doomben R9
Big finish here 21 days ago for second, the extra 100m suits, he’ll do me in the get-out as $2.50 fav.
BET: 10 unit win
Artful Tawny
Morphettville R6
Two ordinary runs after a nice second here in March then a 175 day break. Cleared maidens in his second run a year ago, might just need this but has trialled, $21 shot.
BET: 3 units ew
Red Hawk
Gunbower R6
Really mixing his runs lately, last-first-last in his past three so a bit of guesswork required here but he’s 3:0-0 on good footing. EW at $10.
BET: 3 units ew
Jet Jitsu, Wailua
Murtoa R8
JJ won well for us three back, he’ll get back but will be finishing fast, rarely far away, chance at $10 here…
Wailua did nothing on resuming 20 days ago at Seymour, has no second-up form, will need to improve to feature today at $51.
BET: JJ 4 units ew, W 2 units ew
Fiendish
Kalgoorlie R6
Finished well for third 13 days ago, this is harder, will need to lift at $51.
BET: 2 units ew
Winning Aces
Moora R4
Just 20 cents between the top four in betting, our lad is $6 but needs to lift to figure.
BET: 2 units ew
