Saturday 4th November 2023
Hot to trot…
The research was sound for yesterday, but obviously our tips didn’t pick up on that, apart from our trotter!
King Vance (10 unit win) got up at $3.00.
Russian Dancer (5 units ew) ran a nice third, also at $3.00, while King of the Bounty and Let’s Sea ran fourth.
Massive day of racing today, with two meetings in NZ, but with the bulk of the excitement focused on Aussie, where it’s Derby Day at HQ, plus the Coolmore and the Empire Rose, and a last chance for some horses to claim a start in the Melbourne Cup.
And as a head-start, here’s our pick for the Melbourne Cup.
Without A Fight won the Caulfield Cup, and we think he can go on for a memorable double. The fact that Mark Zahra, who rode Gold Trip to victory last year, had the choice of sticking or moving onto WAF, has elected to jump ship to our lad speaks volumes.
We’ve got 22 from the book, not as many as usual for a Saturday, but no doubt some winners in there, with commentaries on all selections. Let’s dive in!!
NZ today…
GOSPODIN, TIGHTLIGN,
Tauranga, 5
Gospodin has been plain in recent runs, but his heavy track stats bring him into contention here and he also drops in class, $6.50 on offer. Tightlign, on the other hand, has zero form on heavy, unplaced in three, but is OK on soft, so worth keeping an eye on track conditions here as the day develops. Good T&Ds and ran a very close fourth to Johny Johny two weeks ago, also $6.50.
BET: Think you can back both these 5 units ew, plus exotics.
CORK
Tauranga, 8
Another class dropper and heavy track expert (14:4-4), plus she’s 3 from 3 here and McNab won only his only race onboard. Very open betting event, with less than a dollar between the top five in betting. $5.50 on offer, must back her EW.
BET: 5 units ew
DOUBLE TAKE
Tauranga, 9
Ex-HK building towards a win. Backmarker who screamed home in his last two for a third and a second, and while unproven in heavy, must rate a good EW shot here at $6.00.
BET: 5 units ew
CINDY FALLS
Tauranga, 10
Yet another heavy tracker, here three finishes in the frame coming in those conditions. Ignore last run at Te Rapa, must back EW at $11 in another very open betting race.
BET: 5 units ew
IDYLLIC
Trentham, 3
She was another class under Lisa two back at Awapuni, simply running away from the field. Couldn’t repeat up in grade over the extra 100m at Hastings three weeks ago, but more than prepared to give her another shot as $3.10 co-fav.
BET: 8 unit win
Aussie today…
ERSA
Flemington, 1
Noted a month ago bolting in by 9 lengths at Ballarat then ran a close second 17 days ago at Caulfield. This is harder, but don’t dismiss under Jonny Allen at $9.50.
BET: 4 units ew
LADIES MAN
Flemington, 2
Been flying in NZ this prep, and on the back of the Livamol win, they take him over to Aus to try and gain entry into the Melbourne Cup, he’s currently as 25 in the 24 horse line-up. Big test obviously, not sure he wins but gets Yendall up top, so every chance at $7.
BET: 4 units ew
C’EST MAGIQUE
Flemington, 4
Had been tracking well prior to last run, fading late to run last. Back to 1200m should assist, big test at the G3 level, rates an EW shot at $10.
BET: 3 units ew
DON CORLEONE
Flemington, 6
Slashing runs from the back in his last two produced two thirds, this is obviously a step up, Opie heads over for the ride, EW at $41, look for him late.
BET: 2 units ew
CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Flemington, 9
He’s very consistent at this level, dual acceptor who elects to run in this one and gets Ms Kah up top. Tough assignment, some good animals in this, but another EW shot at $15.
BET: 4 units ew
PIONEER RIVER
Rosehill, 5
Another honest horse, he runs second fav here at $5.50, Schiller sticks and he can get some of this even up in grade a touch and first go at 1300m.
BET: 5 units ew
THINK ABOUT IT
Rosehill, 7
Brilliant in the Everest, wins again for me, $1.75 fav.
BET: 10 unit win
SHOCK ‘EM OVA, SKY LAB
Rosehill, 9
Two astonishing last to first wins in the past month or so. Not sure why he isn’t fav for this, or why Newitt jumps off, but confident Mickey Dee can steer him home again, even against the UK import fav. $4.60/$1.90 for our lad.
BET: 5 units ew
SEBONACK
Rosehill, 10
Close without threatening last two. Gets back in the run, Zac Lloyd jumps back onboard, he’s 1:1 on him, EW at $6.50.
BET: 3 units ew
DEEPFLOAT DIVA
Morphettville, 2
Impressed on debut at Murwillumbah six weeks ago, and followed that up with a gritty finish here 14 days ago. Toerek sticks, $2.25 fav, the one to beat in this.
BET: 10 unit win
STELLAR POWER
Toowoomba, 5
Resumes from a 10 month spell, and had a trial 11 days ago. Likes this distance, and jockey is 1:1 but just may need this. $15 in a small field.
BET: 4 unit win
WINCHESTER RIFLE
Wycheproof, 5
Where the hell is Wycheproof? Somewhere in Victoria obviously but not a regular venue in these tips. On the 5 day back-up, and we fancied him under Zac Spain then, so must rate a chance out in the sticks at $6.50.
BET: 5 units ew
FIENDISH
Kalgoorlie, 2
Going round at big odds recently, hard to enthuse, even at $13…
BET: 2 units ew
WANGO AWARD
Ascot, 2
Who needs Pikey? After running a series of places under the top hoop, the apprentice jumped onboard 10 days ago and rode her up the rails to win like a good ‘un! He sticks today, and though she’s up in grade, so do we… $6 on offer.
BET: 5 units ew
PROTEGE
Ascot, 6
He was brilliant on debut in August last year, then ran next to last as odds-on fav next time, obviously an issue there as he went to the paddock for over a year. Resumed 10 days ago where he needed the run, Holly Watson sticks, and we rate this front-runner a real EW shot at $11.
BET: 5 units ew
