Saturday 4th May 2024
Boom-boom-boomshanka!!
We said it before and we’ll say it again, we get huge satisfaction when we identify big odds runners that turn into big odds winners!
That was the case with Lurch yesterday, who we spruiked yesterday as follows:
Lurch
Woodville R7
A one-run maiden who ran seventh in his only race by nearly nine lengths, but we were watching… He was backed in late to around the $15 mark, last all the way and belted home, earning a next-time flag, and that was 15 days ago, where he tried to lead all the way in a very bold effort indeed, and another next-time tag. He seems to have slipped under the radar for this, and the $19 is outrageous value, get on him now, today’s sleeper!
BET: 5 units ew
Boy, did he deliver, skating away to win as he liked, paying $20.30/$4.40. The icing on the cake was the 25% of the tri we took, with the places filled with $14 and $51 shots, the tri paying a massive $9368, and another Hall of Fame entry…
Next up was Invincible Spy (5 units ew) at Wagga, up in grade and distance, but as we said, the Gaibott team know their stuff, and back on a firm track second-up, he punched out to a nice win for us at $6.40/$2.60.
And in the following race, our best bet Fawkner Park (10 unit win) repeated the dose, despite a betting drift and settling dead last, but Schiller produced him with a beautifully rated run and he got up at $3.70 for us.
Those two anchored us into the qadi there, a nice finish to the day’s punt!!
But it didn’t finish there as Markwell Dreamer (4 units ew) got up for second paying $3.40 and Lord Spencer filled fourth place.
Almost thirty tips today, NZ first, Aussie to follow…
NZ today
Brancaster Bomber, Sassman
Riccarton R1
BB has run two seconds and two nowhere this prep, those last two unfortunately here on this track. Still an EW bet at $10.
Sassman powered home for the win in October but did little in the run here 14 days ago. Normally an on-pacer, he’ll need to get back into that mode to feature here at $23…
BET: BB 3 units ew, S 2 units ew
Amberecho, More Than Words
Riccarton R3
Better run for third by Amberecho last week but loses Tina today. Down in the weights, good stats, chance at $7. MTW five runs this prep for a win and a third but three down the track. Makes him hard to catch, Kozzi jumps on though, so an EW shot at $26.
BET: Both 3 units ew, can fill the exotics with this hot fav.
Great Time
Riccarton R4
Tremendous win 5 weeks back, gave ‘em a bath at Riverton by 5 lengths and looks set to push on up to the 1200m, $4 on offer…
BET: 5 units ew, 10 unit win if the money comes…
Royal Wings
Riccarton R6
Won at big odds for us resuming in late December plus another big odds second two runs later. The other runs haven’t lived up to that but if we catch her on the right day she can feature at $41.
BET: 3 units ew
Vindicator
Riccarton R8
Tremendous finish 10 days ago to get up for us at $7.20, can repeat if it’s not too wet, jockey has form, EW shot at $10.
BET: 4 units ew
Shamus, Not Ideal
Te Rapa R7
Shamus won 6 of his first 8, placed two of three last prep, he’s a real mudder and sports outstanding stats for this, resumes here as $3.90 second fav. Not Ideal is ex-HK and that form keeps him in this. Has been close in all runs in NZ and looks the value runner at $12.
BET: Shamus 5 units ew, NI 4 units ew, exotics
Vistown
Te Rapa R9
Her career has been interrupted by a couple of spells in the paddock, so she’s only been around three or four times in the last year. Resumed 20 days ago here with an eye-catching fourth from the back, earning a next-time tag. Jasmine sticks, up to the mile, happy in the heavy, sleeper at $9…
BET: 5 units ew
Aussie today
Mathew
Caulfield R3
Superb at his last appearance in June last year, surging home from last to win at Sale by nearly three lengths. First-up stats have him right in this on resuming here after 286 days, especially with Billy onboard. Warmed up with a trial last month, $8.50 on offer makes him a great EW bet.
BET: 5 units ew
Canny Hell
Caulfield R4
Up in grade but pretty consistent, sleeper EW shot at $14.
BET: 4 units ew
Philosopher
Caulfield R5
Massively consistent, can handle the rise in class here as $4.20 fav in a competitive betting race. Easy EW bet…
BET: 5 units ew
Gentileschi
Hawkesbury 3
Both runs this prep have been outstanding, gets JMac up top, hard to beat in this as $1.85 fav, wins.
BET: 10 unit win
Super Pursuit
Hawkesbury R9
Resumes after 223 days, won last time out for us. This is harder but his all round stats are decent and he’s 5:2-2 first up, so can’t discount him, even at $23.
BET: 3 units ew
Pioneer River
Hawkesbury R10
Another consistent placegetter, just spaces his wins out somewhat. Resumes from a 6 month spell, back to the 1100m will suit, trialled up twice, so a chance at $13.
BET: 3 units ew
Typhoon Taavi
Eagle Farm R3
She’s won her last two with authority, up in grade wins this as $1.65 fav.
BET: 10 unit win
Antino
Eagle Farm R8
Resumes from a 6 month spell, after a tenth placing at Rosehill back in November. Had missed the top fourth in his previous 13 races, has placed at g1, 4:3-0 first-up, gotta back him at $6.50 in this…
BET: 5 units ew
Caracas, Chica Mojito
Eagle Farm R9
Caracas hasn’t missed the frame in three runs and is a G2 placegetter already. Resumes after a 70 day spell, the $19 looks generous.
Chica Mojito, former Kiwi and a G3 placegetter. Debuted at Randwick 14 days ago and powered home for fourth in the heavy going, not an easy task, and she’s getting spruiked up for this today so keep her safe at $19
BET: Both 3 units ew, exotics
Foxy Femme
Morphettville R2
Hasn’t missed the top five in ten runs and won nicely for us 14 days ago. Dom Tourneur sticks, stats up the yin yang, easy EW bet at $5.
BET: 5 units ew
Hayai Mesu
Morphettville R5
Disappointing last time after three good runs. Massive jump in grade and distance here, not sure she’s up to this at $31.
BET: 2 units ew
Ultimate Man
Barcaldine, R3
Resumes and drops in grade, and with no first-up form to speak of it’s hard to see him wining this, $7 on offer…
BET: 2 units ew
Tabulam
Toowoomba, R2
The second last time out was a big improvement and he is a consistent placegetter. Chance on that at $9.
BET: 3 units ew
