Saturday 3rd August 2024
Three placing Friday…
Two seconds and a third from yesterday, with our more favoured runners disappointing badly, with Shore To Happen, Advance To Jaffa and En Francais failing to get into the race at any point as favs…
Cool Encounter (5 units ew) is game as they come, running a gritty second under Jimmy Orman at $2.20, will win soon.
Fire (3 units ew) ran a decent third at $2.50 second-up, got an eye on him.
Asfoora (5 units ew) couldn’t quite get past the fav at Goodwood overnight, running second at $1.55 (more if you got on early).
The real eye-catcher was Handshake, returning after a long break but with previous solid form, and despite drifting out to $26 or so, flashed home from last to run around fifth, earning a next-time tag, Let’s under that went under the radar, as he’ll be well worth the follow-up!
We’ve got six from the book for NZ racing, let’s get them, up now, Aussie to follow shortly…
Six for NZ today…
Lord Spencer
Riccarton R2
Beaten by a long way at Trentham 21 days ago, no way he beats this odds-on fav, so maybe some kind of place bet in the small field, $10/$3 shot.
BET: 5 unit place
Cork, Lord Darci
Riccarton R9
Again, fav looks hard to beat in this but it’s an open betting race, and we tend to steer clear of favs in that scenario, so maybe Cork is a good EW bet in this at $14. Lisa jumps on and he’ll be fitter third up but will need to handle the carpark draw. Lord Darci is in similar mode, third-up, fitter and progressing this prep, and at similar odds.
BET: Can back both 3 units ew, include in exotics…
Crocetti, Master Fay
Ruakaka R7
Hard to see Crocetti getting beat in this with a career record of 8:7-1. $1.60 ain’t much, but it’s better than the bank, and tax-free too! Master Fay hasn’t done much wrong in his short career either, though a little jaunt over to Flem in March for the Newmarket didn’t go well. $3.40 second-fav in this, looks like a race in two…
BET: Crocetti 10 unit win, 10 unit exacta to beat Master Fay…
Double Take
Ruakaka R8
Former HK horse, mixes his efforts a little but generally thereabouts. Goes best on a soft track, which he gets today and has placed twice here. Drawn a bit wide but it’s 2100m, where he’s 2:0-2, $6 second-fav in another open betting race and looks a decent EW bet at that.
BET: 5 units ew
N-n-n-n-nineteen from Aussie
Berkshire Breeze
Flemington R2
This is some horse, stunningly easy win here a month ago, potentially pointed at the Melbourne Cup where he sits as a $17 shot (worth an ante-post bet at that price for sure!) $1.45, sell the farm…
BET: 10 unit win
Cindy Falls
Flemington R3
Kiwi mare who had two very good runs under her belt in Aussie, and we thought she’d relish the rise to the mile 14 days ago here but she just couldn’t pick ‘em up, running a close sixth. Back to 1410m, B Shinn onboard, $3.70 fav, looks like a race in two…
BET: 10 unit win
Rise At Dawn, Frumos
16JUL22 WOW!!!
Flemington R5
Rise At Dawn is a real on-pacer, very consistent, super T&Ds and Stackhouse is 6:3-1 up top. Looks between the top two, our lad a $3.60 second fav.
Frumos was run down late three weeks ago, unusually from the front, she normally sits back, but it was a decent fourth which gives her an EW shot in this at $23.
BET: RAD 8 unit win, Frumos 3 units ew, exotics
Pioneer River
Flemington R9
Drops in grade, super stats, would prefer it a bit firmer but Celine sticks. Don’t dismiss just yet, $12 shot.
BET: 3 units ew
Point Basse
Rosehill R4
Returns from a 9 month spell after winning three from four in his first prep, and looking pretty impressive whilst doing so. Not sure why he’s been away so long, maybe a training injury, but he’s had a few trials to tune up, presents as a $5.50 second fav here, EW for sure.
BET: 5 units ew
Compelling Truth
Rosehill R7
We got you to sell the farm 16 days ago, and he duly blew ‘em away by almost 4 lengths, meaning that he’s won his last four races by accumulatively 20 lengths plus! JPH sticks, he’s 5:5 onboard, trying to figure out why he doesn’t win again, $3.40 second-fav…
BET: 10 unit win
Fox Gem
Murray Bridge R3
Dammit he was too far back 10 days ago when he steamed home to just miss at Murwillumbah, but he’s so consistent, watch fro him late as he stretches out to the 2500m for the first time… Wary of the jump in grade today, he’s currently $4.80 fav in a race where there’s less that four bucks between the top seven horses…
BET: 5 units ew
Rudhyar, Wheels
Murray Bridge R4
We’ve had a watchful eye on Rudhyar, who’s finished fast in his last two, Fred sticks today and slightly down in grade, reckon he goes very close in this as $4.60 second fav…
Wheels is out to a more suitable distance having done little in two resuming runs this prep. $16 shot today, don’t dismiss…
BET: R 5 units ew, Wheels 3 units ew, exotics
More Sugar
Murray Bridge R5
Not quite showing enough yet, prefer over longer, but not bad T&Ds…
BET: 3 units ew
Shuri
Newcastle R2
We spruiked Shuri up to bounce back here 18 days ago after a couple of ordinary runs, and she looked the winner for a long way down the straight until getting nicked at the line, after being backed in to close to favouritism from an overnight price of $7. Had her down as a next-timer for sure, prefer firmer, but think she’s travelling the right way and can win this as $2.80 fav out to the mile.
BET: 10 unit win
Secret Location
Townsville R2
Finally fulfilled some early promise at Innisfail to win a BM65 then jumped grade here at Cairns two weeks ago and bolted in again. Winning jockey sticks, $5.50 on offer, we’re all over that!!
BET: 5 units ew
Namazu, Fortified, Such A Whit
M27 Townsville R7
Namazu is 4 from 4 here, and despite three so-so runs this prep, he’s the $3.50 fav here and rightly so, hard to beat and an easy EW bet at $3.50/$1.75.
Fortified is in super form, three wins from his last four and sits in second spot at $4.20.
SAW is inconsistent but capable of throwing in the odd win, sits at $27 in this.
BET: N 5 units ew, F 3 units ew, SAW 2 units ew, include in exotics
Bringyaticket, Turbeau
Townsville R9
BYT very consistent, possess a big finish, so was expecting him to be out over further today. Needs to settle closer and he’ll be a huge threat, $7.50 looks value.
Turbeau resumes, has first-up form but will need every bit of it today, $15 shot.
BET: BYT 5 units ew, T 2 units ew
Sacred Kiwi
Hamilton R7
Spruiked him up as an improver 12 days a go but he never emerged from the ruck, despite having form on heavy. Drops back to 1400m where his form is poor, so not sure what to make of him today as $6.50 second fav in a big open field…
BET: 3 units ew
