Saturday 29th April 2023
Back to Saturday with 26 from the book!
A second and two thirds from yesterday’s picks, I’m sure we’ll strike gold today, our avarage win rate on Saturday’s is up around 15-20%, while our return rate is between 35-40%.
Let’s get an early look at the NZ picks, with a total of 26 from the book. Aussie to come shortly…
Early NZ tips…
TIGHTLIGN
Hastings, 1
Consistent of late, has good distance and jockey stats for this, and is a chance to roll this fav, $3.50 on offer.
BET: 6 unit win
BOURBON ROAD
Te Rapa, 5
Backed in on resuming in Feb and duly bolted in. OK in next two moving up the grades, and this is another step, so EW at $21.
BET: 3 units ew
AROMATIC, KARMAN LINE
Te Rapa, 7
Opie produced a beautiful ride on Aromatic to win the Breeders’ earlier this month, and while this is now G2 level, is capable of winning again as the $2.60 fav. We’ve been willing KL to add to her debut win, but to no avail. Possess a good finish, so the mmove up to 2000m may be beneficial, $10 shot.
BET: Aromatic 10 unit win, KL 3 units bew, exotics.
TESTIFY ME
Te Rapa, 8
Boomed home at Trentham in Jan to break maidens and presents here as the $7 c0-fav in a wide open event. Sam Spratt jumps on, and he looks a good EW bet in this.
BET: 5 units ew
THE BEST OF AUSSIE
BERMADEZ
Sandown, 9
Not bad for fourth on resuming, she’s run in higher grades than this, and the drop back to this distance will suit, as will Meech jumping on. At $13, a good EW bet on this front-running mare…
BET: 3 units ew
STAR OF CHAOS
Sandown, 10
Not bad for fourth on resuming, she’s run in higher grades than this, and the drop back to this distance will suit, as will Meech jumping on. At $13, a good EW bet on this front-running mare…
BET: 3 units ew
FLAG OF HONOUR
Rosehill, 4
Won his first two before contesting in higher grades at G2 and G3 levels. Won his maiden at this distance, and JMac can boot him home here on resumption as $5 c0-fav in a tight betting race.
BET: 5 units ew
VOWMASTER
Rosehill, 5
Sticking with JMac again here… This gelding looked like he was getting back to his best in his last spell after early career promise. Has had a couple of recent trials and is a solid EW shot in another tight event at $6.
BET: 4 units ew
SHAMELESS MISS
Rosehill, 6
Showed good form over the longer distances in mid-year last year before stepping up in grade and down in distance. Better suited by the 1800m here today and has first-up form. Two from two on soft going, could be value at $19
BET: 3 units ew
FRUMOS
Rosehill, 8
Very effective around this class and distance, and has won first up. Another JMac/Waller runner in an open event, $6 on offer.
BET: 5 units ew
DEMOCRACY MANIFEST
Rosehill, 9
Another Waller runner, this time with Moreira up top, will go out as $2.60 or better, and surely has too nay guns for this lot.
BET: 10 unit win
WHEELS
Morphettville, 2
Obviously out of her depth in the G2 last month, but won the previous two, one in higher grade than this. Sleeper at $14 in this field. Good all round stats…
BET: 4 units ew
MOSCOW RED
Morphettville, 6
Rank outsider at $81 (365) in this but ran third in a Listed race two back, so I’m gonna give her an EW shot in this. Touch short, but has good track and going stats, and has won first up.
BET: 3 units ew
APPIN GIRL
Eagle Farm, 4
She cruised in easily on debut after winning a trial earlier this month, then won another trial. Winning habits are good habits, Thornton sticks and she can go on with it here as $2.70 near-co-fav.
BET: 10 unit win
BALTIC COAST
Eagle Farm, 6
Went in the book last May with a driving win but has been a bit patchy since. However, and eye-catching driving finish from last brought him a narrow second placing two weeks ago, and form brings him right into contention here as the $6.50 second fav.
BET: 5 units ew
WAITAK
Eagle Farm, 9
Former Kiwi who ran fifth here on his Aussie debut after running in some high octane races in NZ, including a fifth in the NZ Derby. Value at $14.
BET: 4 units ew
POLYLITHIC
Toowoomba, 8
Been scratched a couple of times but goes here on the back of two thirds as second fav at $2.30 in a small field.
BET: 5 unit win
BLAZING TYCOON
Ascot, 2
Has struck some good form this prep and Pikey jumping on will do no damage at all. $9 in a small field, blinding T&D stats…
BET: 6 unit win
HIGHGROUND
Barcaldine, 4
Looks a race in two, but our fella’s well into his prep and if he gets in front, he’ll take some catching, $5 on offer
BET: 5 units ew
NUMPTY
Horsham, 4
Mixes her runs, but drops in grade here as $4 second fav.
BET: 5 unit win
THE REST OF AUSSIE
JALMARI, PROOST
Rosehill, 2
PROSCENIUM ARCH, AMATI
Morphettville, 9
AVENUE OF HEAVEN
Toowoomba, 3
