Saturday 28th October 2023
Knocking…
A day of knocking on the door as we hit a second, third and a fourth yesterday…
Super effort from Joltin’ Joe (3 units ew) at the Valley, got back as is his usual pattern, not a great idea at the Valley, but he shot round all but one of them to run a very creditable second at $4 the place.
We spruiked Mombasa (4 units ew) to do the same thing, and he bolted from near-last to run third, paying $2.70, with Valieva running a close fourth at big odds, next time…
Huge day of racing today, with the Manikato and the Cox Plate the main features, let’s have a look, NZ first…
NZ today
MILLEFIORI
Pukekohe, 2
Won for us at Ruakaka off an insider’s tip in July before failing at Tauranga a week later. Resumes and has won twice first up. Chance at $7 in a small field.
BET: 5 unit win
BIT NOSY
Pukekohe, 3
Ran a bold second last time at $35 for us, only nudged out late. Might have turned the corner, so keep an eye on her at $19.
BET: 3 units ew
DOUBLE TAKE, THE FIRST LINK
Pukekohe, 4
DT is former HK, and absolutely rattled home three weeks ago for us, running third paying $6. Keep safe at $6 today over the longer distance. TFL spaces out his performances, so EW best at $13.
BET: DT 4 units ew, TFL 2 units ew, exotics
QUEEN SARABI
Pukekohe, 6
Didn’t feature last time up in grade after two smart wins. Back to the BM75 today, prefers it wet, gets the in-form Joe Doyle up top, watch for her late as a $15 shot here.
BET: 4 units ew
BRANCASTER BOMBER
Riccarton, 3
Here’s a go… tried to lead all the way for us 12 days ago, just failed to hang on as a $30 shot, but drops back to the 1200m today, backable EW as $4.00 second fav.
BET: 5 units ew
GOLDIE’S CHANCE
Riccarton, 4
Super effort last time out resuming, nearly stole it too here at $15 before being run down by a good ‘un. Will have taken great benefit from that and looks well-placed to take this out as $3.70 fav. Lightly raced, 1:1 second up.
BET: 10 unit win
ESTABLISHMENT
Riccarton, 5
Recent form would suggest he’s looking outclassed here, needs it wetter. $21 shot.
BET: 2 units ew
TROBRIAND
Riccarton, 7
A race in two by the look of it, Trobriand winning here 4 weeks back and beaten by Crocetti previously. Lantern Way might prefer it wetter.
BET: T 8 unit win, 10 unit quinella.
SECOND THOUGHT
Riccarton, 9
Super stats for this, obviously the one to beat as $4.60 fav.
BET: 5 units ew
Aussie today
UNFLINCHING
Moonee Valley, 1
Needed the resuming run here a month ago, fading after leading, but his stats are excellent, and with Ms Kah hopping on, he’ll be right in the thick of this from a nice draw. $3.70 in a small field. Looks like a race in two.
BET: 8 unit win, 10 unit quinella with Taunting
EN FRANCAIS
Moonee Valley, 3
Hard to go past the in-form fav but EF in with a shout in this small field at $6.
BET: 6 unit win
ANTINO, BANKERS CHOICE
Moonee Valley, 5
These two ran second and third in the Toorak, SPs were $5 and $201, with BC paying $29 the place. Another small field, Antino co-fav at $2.80, BC $11.
BET: A 6 unit win, BC 4 unit win, exotics
PINSTRIPED, ROMANTIC WARRIOR
Moonee Valley, 9
He’s been going well in good company but probably a bit out of his class in the Cox Plate at $81. Based on HK form, I think the fav will take beating after his warm-up in the Turnbull three weeks ago…
BET: P 2 units ew, RW 10 unit win
EYE PEA OH
Randwick, 1
We said she had a shot on resuming, even at the $35 on offer, and she screamed home for third. Must rate a chance off that at $4.60.
BET: 4 units ew
PIONEER RIVER, SEBONACK
Randwick, 2
Got a lot of time for PR, honest as they come, and rates a top chance in this rating band. Sebonack started this prep with a win and a close eighth in a BM100, so expect him to feature back in the BM78. $4.00 ans $4.60 on offer for the fav and second fav in an open event.
BET: Can back both 5 units ew, exotics.
ROOTS
Randwick, 8
Close fast-finishing fifth on resuming at Rosehill three weeks back. Berry sticks, and she rates a good EW go at $7.50
BET: 4 units ew
GRINGOTTS
Randwick, 10
Former Kiwi in consistent form finds her race to break through this prep. $2.30 fav.
BET: 4 units ew
EAGLELOU
Morphettville, 3
Very consistent placegetter returning from a spell, good first-up and T&D stats suggest he’s a worthy EW bet at $11.
BET: 4 units ew
WHEELS
Morphettville, 7
Nice return two weeks ago, strong from the back as usual, upside says she figures in this as a $4 second fav.
BET: 5 units ew, 8 unit win if the money comes…
MIDNIGHT IN TOKYO
Doomben, 10
Dual acceptor electing to run here resuming, drops from G3 to BM78, good first-up record, watch for her late as $4.60 second fav.
BET: 5 units ew
BONGO RHYTHM
Albury, 7
Two very different career runs… spruiked and screamed home on debut before running last a Kembla two weeks later. 4 months in the paddock, warmed up with a trial win 17 days ago, should be ready to win again as $2.50 fav.
BET: 10 unit win
C’MON AND LOVE ME
Yarra Valley, 7
Not sure she’s doing enough, $41 outsider.
BET: 2 units ew
WORLD CHARMER
Townsville, 6
Won her last two, these don’t seem that good, so happy to back her EW at a silly $21…
BET: 4 units ew
TARA JASMINE
Townsville, 7
Bolted home from the back despite our concern over the shorter distance here three weeks back, so happy to tips her again at the 1200m. $3.50 co-fav.
BET: 8 unit win
RULER ROCKET
Ascot, 3
Never missed the top three in nine outings, bit of a nut-bag by all accounts, $3.30 second fav, back him again…
BET: 8 unit win
MISS INTENTION
Ascot, 5
There or thereabouts recently, winning last time for us 9 days ago. Easy EW bet at $7.
BET: 5 units ew
