Saturday 26th October 2024
First and a fourth…
One winner in Gold Tracker, (5 unit win) who produced his big finish to score well at Queanbeyan at $3.
A fourth for Cornelian Bay was the best of the rest…
Eight from NZ, posted now, with 22 from Aussie on Cox Plate Day, coming up shortly…
Let’s kick-off with NZ today…
Kattegat
Ellerslie R1
Kattegat ran a very encouraging third on resuming at Wanganui at the end of August, then won a trial there, before another tidy third at Waverley. Finished well for a close second last Saturday and is second fav at $3.70 in a close betting race.
BET: 6 unit win
Not Guilty
Ellerslie R2
Early career form was very consistent but fell away late last year, and she resumes from a six month break today. Trialled up with a second and a third and is 4:3-0 first-up, so =keep safe as a $5 shot in a small field…
BET: 6 unit win
Alabama Lass
Ellerslie R7
She’s a filly going places, won her two races this prep and warmed up with a 7 length win in a trial couple of weeks back. $1.45 fav, hard to see her beaten today…
BET: 10 unit win
Habana, Shamus, Testify Me
Ellerslie R8
Fully expected Habana to feature 14 days ago but Wazza had him too far back and he finished well for eighth without threatening. Wazza jumps ship, the apprentice hops on, and up to the mile will suit, $4.80 on offer.
Shamus ran ‘em off their feet last month with a rollicking $28.80/$7.40 win in the Almanzor at Ellerslie, taking advantage of hotpot fav Orchestral’s miserable performance. Down in grade, nice stats all round, $13 shot, hard to leave him out of calculations based on that resuming win!
Testify Me got up for a fabulous win in the St Leger in March and followed up with another nice win at Otaki. Resumed there after a six month break and did nothing, needing the run, but his second-up form is very today (2:1-1) but he’ll need to be at his best to figure as the $23 outsider in this.
BET: Habana 5 units ew, Shamus 4 units ew, TM 2 units ew, exotics galore!
Sassman
Riccarton R3
Resumes after 97 days, has had some success at this T&D and under this jockey. Scratchings have decimated the field but it’s still a tight betting race, our lad the $7.50 outsider and not out of it…
BET: 5 unit win
Raziah
Riccarton R7
Resumed 28 days ago with a super finish to win for us at $8.00, fulfilling previous promising form. Up in grade 14 days ago and won a G3 in her fifth race, $2.90 second fav here, up to the mile and hard to beat for me…
BET: 10 unit win
Today in Aussie…
Philosopher, Unflinching
Moonee Valley R1
Philosopher was in some hot form around the turn of the year, winning four out of six and placed the other two before running last up in grade in a BM90 and heading to the paddock. Resumes from a 6 month spell, fabulous stats all round and Ms Hefel up top. His jump-outs have been exceptional, looks ready to roll, well in this at $8.
Unflinching is a frontrunner, which is very handy round the Valley as his T&Ds show, and pretty consistent at that. Will give them something to chase down over the 1000m especially if he gets a rest in the middle part, $12 on offer…
BET: Philosopher 5 units ew, Unflinching 3 units ew, exotics
Baraqiel
Moonee Valley R7
The stats say it all, 7:5-2 and while up in grade, he can feature if he slots in somewhere and he’ll be sprinting home for sure, $4.20 in a close betting event.
BET: 5 units ew
Plenty Of Ammo
Moonee Valley R8
Resumed from a 284 day hiatus, 21 days ago, won four on the trot prior to that and had trialled up twice under Coffey, only to be outgunned late by Uncle Bryn at Flem. Gets 3:3 jockey J Childs back on today and presents as $4.40 fav, back up to the mile, he’s an easy EW bet.
BET: 5 units ew
Broadsiding
Moonee Valley R9
Plenty of prospects in the Cox Plate, with our lad well in this at $6.50, has a tremendous finish but needs to be nearer the pace around this tight track. We’ve heard great things about the Jap import Prognosis, looks hard to beat, and we do like Via Sistina’s form.
BET: 5 units ew
Fawkner Park, Democracy Manifest, Rediener, Naval College
Randwick R6
We’ve got no less than four going in this, so here goes…
Fawkner Park never got going when resuming last month at Caulfield, but he’s far better than that as we know… Tends to settle back but will be appearing late, $4.60 on offer.
Democracy Manifest is back form G1 duty ans is also capable of that big finish, coming from last of 20 to run eighth 21 days ago here. Up to 1800m will suits, a succulent Chinese meal anyone? $4.40 on offer.
Redeiner was going well earlier in the year, that’s dropped off this prep but not out of it at all, $8.50.
Naval College won three in a row early in the year but couldn’t reproduce that up in grade. Resumes here and will probably need the run, $14.
BET: FP and DM 5 units ew, other two 2 units ew interest, exotics of course…
Belclare, Roots
Randwick R8
Belclare is rarely far away and hasn’t been too bad on her two runs in Aus. Schiller sticks and she’s an EW shot in this at $18.
Roots jumps up form G3 level and would rate a decent chance on her best form, Waller’s no mug, keep her safe even at $26…
BET: Both 3 units ew
Regal Lion
Randwick R10
Resuming from a 4 month break, no first-up from, will need this as the $41 outsider.
BET: 2 units ew
Merchant Flyer
Doomben R3
Went in the book late Sept on the Sunny Coast, absolutely cruised home from the back to win by 4 lengths, and though up in grade, Jimmy Orman repeated the dose five days later on the same course. Up in grade again, but you can’t knock winning form, and Andrew Mallyon is a more than capable replacement up top. I say we go again, $5 makes him an easy EW bet…
BET: 5 units ew
Eaglelou
Morphettville R5
A tad inconsistent this time in, not sure the heavy track over 3150m suited last time but this will suit far better, down miles in grade over recent runs, better track, he’ll get back but will be finishing on, sneaky value at $19.
BET: 3 units ew
Artful Tawny
Morphettville R7
Bolted home late for us three weeks ago at $17 after a big break. Slightly wary of the drop back in distance, but he’s a live EW shot at $7.
BET: 5 units ew
Storm De Lune
Kembla Grange R1
He runs more often than the buses, with a close fourth at Nowra 6 days ago a better runs from him. He’ll get up at outrageous odds at some point no doubt, so it’s the interest bet today, again, at $71…
BET: 2 units ew
Spirit Of Pluto
Armidale R4
Way back in grade, has finished well last two, decent T&Ds, can feature if at his best, $6.50 on offer…
BET: 3 units ew
Eloheh
Yarra Valley R6
Consistent placegetter, her only win was on soft, EW is an easy bet at $7.
BET: 3 units ew
Moxatation
St Arnaud R6
Surprise winner at $21 for us three back followed by two ordinary runs, but is another back in grade today, worth an EW punt at $10.
BET: 3 units ew
Handshake
St Arnaud R7
Was in fantastic form last year, not missing a place in nine runs, but nowhere near that since. Won this week a year ago, but outsider’s chance in this at $41.
BET: 2 units ew
Winning Aces
Collie R6
Improved run 21 days ago for second out in the sticks, rough chance here at $10.
BET: 2 units ew
Miss Intention
Ascot R3
Resumes, hasn’t shown much for some time, will need this at $71.
BET: 2 units ew
