Saturday 22nd February 2025

Next…

A rare day when we draw a complete blank, but that’s the punt for ya!

Another big day of racing with the Avondale Cup & Guineas at Ellerslie topping the bill in NZ, where we have 14 tips, plus a huge day in Aussie, including three G1’s at Caulfield and a total of 18 tips from there…

Let’s dive in with the NZ line-up, Aussie to follow…

NZ today…

Miss Ziggy

Ellerslie R1

She’s been consistency itself, including an eye-catching third in the Karaka Million for us when sent out at $86. Huge drop back to maiden grade gives her a real chance of the win here, $4 on offer…

BET: 8 unit win

Vistown, Tranzed

Ellerslie R3

Vistown got up at Tauranga with a nicely-timed run, Jasmine sticks, and while this is tougher, she can make the frame at $23 now she’s remembered how to win.

Tranzed drops in grade, and while his recent form doesn’t make great reading, we can’t help but think that there’s a win at decent odds in him, and that might be here at $17.

BET: Both 3 units ew, exotics

Oceana Dream, Hakkinen

Ellerslie R5

Favourite looks awfully hard to beat in this, though the $1.70 on offer isn’t too appealing…

Better value in our two, OD has been spruiked as a possible Stakes horse and well-supported on debut in early Jan and duly delivered impressively. Followed up with a stylish win here, and while this in harder, he’s done nothing wrong, will be dropping in late, value at $10.

Hakkinen won at Matamata in December, where he looked blocked out of it, but once Billy got him out, he cruised home like a good ‘un… Tougher test here in Jan where he finished fast for fourth and while this is tougher again, he too can make the frame at a juicy $61.

BET: Both 3 units ew, include in exotics placings behind this fav.

Let Fly, Manifique

Ellerslie R6

A parallel of the above race, with another fav seemingly home and hosed in this, and maybe some value in our two, both sitting at $21.

Let Fly has great T&D stats for this and has run two thirds in a row, the last one within two lengths of this fav.

Manifique has been racing well without winning and rarely far away…

BET: Rinse and repeat, both 3 units ew, include in exotics placings behind this fav.

Belclare, Waitak, Aegon

Ellerslie R7

Top three in betting should dominate, so again, value in our three for placings all around the $16 mark. Belclare sports decent T&Ds, Waitak will be winding up late, so the push out to the mile could suit, and Aegon also likes the T&D and has been close up in his last two.

BET: And again, all 3 units ew, include in exotics placings behind this fav.

Dealt With

Ellerslie R8

He was two from two and on the six day back-up a month back here, tried to lead all the way over the mile and no disgrace in running third to Damask Rose. Back to the 1400m today suits just fine, $4.60 in a tight betting field, EW easy…

BET: 5 units ew

Cooper

Otaki R3

He’s been hampered by needing a couple of spells, and resumes today having just the one run in November, a very decent effort running second after 198 days away. Has talent, and if he’s right, he’ll take some beating, early money suggests he is at $5…

BET: 5 units ew

Tikemyson

Otaki R4

In great form this prep, two wins and not far away in the others. Back in grade and fav jockey up top should see him close to winning this as $3.40 fav.

BET: 10 unit win

Idyllic

Otaki R5

Back from G1 company seven weeks ago, where she tried, as usual, to lead all the way but weakened late in the Telegraph. No disgrace in that, back to Open grade will suit, as will Tina up top, $3.70 fav.

BET: 10 unit win

Aussie today…

Pondalowie, Samangu

Caulfield R1

Small but tough race to kick off at Caulfield, and we’ve got the top two in the betting…

Pondalowie finished off well on resuming a month ago, will be fitter, drops in grade, $2.80 fav.

Samangu is an on-pacer who weakened late 35 days ago, up in grade, $3.20 second fav.

BET: P 8 units ew, 8 unit quinella

Luna Cat

Caulfield R2

Poor last time after a couple of nice thirds, this will test, $19 on offer.

BET: 2 units ew

Eternal Flame

Caulfield R6

Very much needed the resuming run but needs to show some quick improvement to figure here, $19 shot. Maybe later…

BET: 3 units ew

Pinstriped

Caulfield R7

Another needing his resuming run 14 days ago but he does hold some super stats for this, T&D, grade, second-up, jockey, all ticking some boxes, see keep safe at $34, bearing in mind fav will be awfully hard to beat…

BET: 3 units ew, place in exotics

Jimmysstar, Headwall

Caulfield R9

Very open betting race for the Oakleigh, Jimmysstar resumes, early career stats are outstanding. Has a huge finish, just a touch concerned he might not get the chance to use it back at 1100m, but EW at $9.50 for sure.

Headwall also sports great stats, only missing the top three once in thirteen goes, and won the G3 at Kembla in November. Biggest test yet, H Coffey jumps on, $23 on offer.

BET: Both 3 units ew

Bankers Choice

Caulfield R10

He’ll try and win from the front in another open betting race, EW shot at $9.50.

BET: 3 units ew

Oenology, Point Basse

Rosehill R2

Oenology is another habitual backmarker who resumed from a spell (136 days) 19 days ago. Produced a gritty performance to win, jumps in grade and rates an EW bet at $21.

Point Basse resumes, he’s 6:3-1 but may need this, $16.

BET: 3 units ew

Bel Merci

Rosehill R6

Race in two by the look of it… Our girl was very impressive on debut back in October and has trialled up very nicely. $3 second fav, taking her to beat the fav.

BET: 10 unit win, 10 unit quinella with fav

Francesco Guardi

Rosehill R7

Resumes from a 4 month break but shapes up as a threat if he finds his best form having run well in G1 and G2 company last year. Has had three trials and not shown much, but could be the day’s sleeper at $34…

BET: 3 units ew

Broadsiding, Tenbury Wells

Rosehill R8

BS resumes after failing in the G1 Cantala but previous form was outstanding. Won a trial 11 days ago, $2.30 fav.

TW also resumes from a similar break, this looks too short for this talented galloper, will need this, $151 outsider…

BET: BS 10 unit win, TW 2 units ew

Fox Gem

Morphettville R3

Possesses a great finish, won two of his past three late, must go in again at $8.

BET: 5 units ew

Red Hawk

Alice Springs R3

Resumes, drops in grade, but capable of featuring in this, EW at $8.50.

BET: 3 units ew

Royal Fox

Kangaroo Island R3

And yet another resumer, easiest he’s contested in a while, so could threaten at $10.

BET: 3 units ew