Saturday 21st September 2024

Two seconds…

Two seconds from our five tips yesterday, with Roots (5 units ew, $2.40) scampering home well on resuming, she’ll bear some watching second-up and is duly noted as a next-timer…

We well fancied Justin Huxtable to steer Fortuneer to a win in her second-up race out as hot fav, but dammit, she was beaten by her $16 shot stablemate, also ridden by a Justin (Stanley)…

Ten in NZ today, couple of double-ups in some races, let’s have a look, plus 22 to come shortly from Aussie!

NZ’s Top Ten today!

Let Fly

Ellerslie R1

Thought she was tracking towards a win at Ruakaka 14 days ago, where’s got decent stats, but it didn’t happen. Maybe the push out to the 2400m will assist, Sam Spratt has won and placed on her previously, $8 on offer.

BET: 4 units ew

Double Take, Jack In The Box

Ellerslie R2

These two sitting at the bottom of the market at $26 and $41, and need to lift to figure here.

BET: Both 2 units ew

Aquilifer, Vistown

Ellerslie R4

Aquilifer was going very consistently last prep before finishing well back in the G3 Breeders’ in April and heading to the paddock. Resumes after five months and is 2:2-0 first up, and with Vinnie Colgan up top, needs to be kept very safe especially with the drop in grade, $6 on offer.

Vistown also resumes after a 3 month break, only one win in her past 20 runs but has a decent finish in her and rarely far off, so $21 looks value.

BET: Aquilifer 5 units ew, Vistown 3 units ew, exotics

Habana, Shamus

Ellerslie R7

Habana resumes after a 7 month break, usually needs a run to come to hand but possess some decent stats, especially with Wazza up top. Another to keep safe, second fav at $6.50.

Shamus won two back at Ruakaka with ALC onboard, and he’s back on today. He’s a G2 winner, likes it soft, and this distance and his first-up stats are outstanding (6:3-2). $23 looks generous…

BET: Habana 5 units ew, Shamus 3 units ew, exotics.

The First Link

Ellerslie R8

Not doing enough, though maybe suited a touch better on the soft going, interest bet only at $41…

BET: 2 units ew

Ladies Man

Wanganui R4

Drops hugely in class on resumption and is almost always thereabouts. First-up stats are 6:0-5, loves it heavy, but the drops back to 120mm suggests this may be a tune-up after 196 days away. EW at $16.

BET: 3 units ew

Badgeringdawitness

Wanganui R5

Did well to get up unexpectedly on resuming at Hawera last month under this jockey. Thrives in the heavy and ran a fourth this T$D in June, keep safe at $9.50, will sit just off the pace…

BET: 4 units ew

Aussie today…

Federer

Caulfield R2

Two wins have been exceptional, $1.55 here, sell the farm…

BET: 10 unit win

Matriarch Rose

Caulfield R3

Fancied her on resumption 21 days ago here, and while she ran sixth, she was not far away. Will be better for that and rates a chance at $7.50 in this small field with Jaylah sticking…

BET: 4 units ew

Showmanship, Bermadez

Caulfield R5

Hard to back against this very talented fav but could fill exotic places. S remains unbeaten on good going (5:5-0), likes the T&D, $15 on offer. Bermadez has very good first-up form (7:4-1) and loves the distance, $34 for him.

BET: 2 units ew for these two, include in exotics with fav to win.

Jimmysstar

Caulfield R6

Former Kiwi who racked up five in a row before jumping in grade. Resumes from a 126 day spell, might be a tune-up over the 1100m, but he’s 4:3-1 first-up, EW at $4.80…

BET: 5 units ew

Bankers Choice

Caulfield R7

Has gone well in higher grades but nearly two years since he’s saluted. Not far off in two runs this prep, without threatening, EW best at $19.

BET: 3 units ew

Fawkner Park

Caulfield R8

Talented gelding resuming, got his eye on the Caulfield Cup, so maybe another one tuning up, but he’s got first-up form, Schiller is 4:3-1 onboard, and he’s 11-7-1 on top of the ground, easy EW bet at $6.50.

BET: 5 units ew

Eternal Flame, Mollynickers

Caulfield R10

EF won a G3 and a G2 win in the Sunline, before an eighth in the G1 Queen Turf in April. Resumes from a 161 day spell, may need the run over a bit-too-short 1200m, but has good stats, watch for her late at $21.

In a similar bracket is Mollynickers, yet to reproduce her early career form, might also need the run and capable of a late charge, $26 on offer.

BET: Both 3 units ew

Sting Jet

Randwick R2

Noted when massive late to win at Scone in Feb, and not too far off in subsequent runs. Yet another resuming, might need it, $21.

BET: 3 units ew

Gringotts, Rustic Steel

Randwick R6

Gringotts is a Kiwi who resumes after winning three in a row last prep. This is a step up but has good first-up stats, only missed a place once in 13 runs, so must be kept safe at $5.50.

Rustic Steel has been running in G1-G3 races, with a win at G3 in March, resumes here as $31 outsider.

BET:  G 5 units ew, RS 3 units ew

Autumn Glow, Snow In May

Randwick R7

AG looks special, with two classy wins to date, hard to beat as $2 fav here.

SIM has the same race record, capable of running in the money here at $26.

BET: AG 10 unit win, SIM 3 units ew, exotics with AG to win

Sebonack

Randwick R10

Expected better 21 days ago but jumped last and stayed there. Can do better, $26.

BET: 2 units ew

Ghost Doctor

Echuca R6

Rattled home for third 7 weeks ago earning a next-time tag, seasoned veteran, distance suits,can make the frame at $17.

BET: 3 units ew

King Of The Bounty

Echuca R9

Absolute backmarker who’s steamed home for third in four of his six runs this prep, and we fancied him 18 days ago at big odds but he also jumped last and stayed there. Can improve, $19.

BET: 3 units ew

Polylithic

Bowraville R4

Out in the sticks today as $3.30 fav, should be up to win this.

BET: 8 unit win

Counttheheadlights

Mt Magnet R4

Ex-Victorian debuting in WA, has trialled well and worth following at $7.50.

BET: 4 units ew

Desert Nymph, Wango Award

Belmont R4

Both in good form this prep… Edging to DN as $3.40 second-fav, with WA a good EW chance.

BET: DN 8 unit win, WA 4 units ew