May 17, 2025

Saturday 17th May 2025

Nice winner!

A superb win from Who Ever Thought yesterday, third up after two so-so runs this prep, but back at his fav T&D he never looked like being headed once he hit the front, paying a nice $4.40.

Bit disappointed in Bold Response, didn’t get to his customary front-running role and was left with too much to do down the finishing straight, running a close second…

Five from NZ and 20 from Aussie today, let’s have a look!!

NZ today

War Of Succession

Ellerslie R2

Resumed from a massive 469 day break at Wanganui 20 days ago and had trialled nicely, but never featured. Showed some nice form prior, gets V Colgan up top today and will better for that run. Lightly raced, has placed two from three at the mile and is 2:1-1 on soft going, open betting race, chance at $10 and worth following…

BET: 4 units ew

Double Take

Ellerslie R5

Former HK runner back from a six month break, did little last prep and likely to find this a bit on the short side, will be better for the run, $31 on offer…

BET: 2 units ew

Velocious

Ellerslie R6

Won well on resuming in March, and fully expected her to go close three weeks ago even up to the G3 grade in the Breeders at Te Rapa but she jumped slow and stayed there, and looking at her stats, I’d say she doesn’t like any give in the ground as all five wins have been on good going. Unbeaten here in two though, and if the Ellerslie track dries out sufficiently she’ll be hard to beat back in this grade, $2.60 co-fav.

BET: 10 unit win if dry

Cooper

Ellerslie R7

Very consistent and looks a really EW bet in this open betting race at $8.50.

BET: 5 units ew

Penvose Lad

Trentham R4

A superb ride last time out, drawn the carpark and stuck to the outside, surging home for an excellent win to make it two in a row, we took him at $8.50 and he was backed in the $4.20. Up in grade and down in the weights but the way he won the last two suggests he can handle this. Winning jockey sticks, $4.00 fav, all over him!

BET: 10 unit win

Aussie today

Matriarch Rose, Cindy Falls

Flemington R3

Thought MR would need the run resuming 22 days ago here so she did well to finish a close fourth and will have benefited from the run. Has won second-up, rates an EW chance at $21.

CF resuming but is 3:2-1 first-up, careful, $18 shot.

BET: MR 3 units ew, CF 2 units ew

Yaldi

Flemington R4

Debuts in Aus today, and after a tidy start to his career he’s been a bit ordinary last couple of starts, though the last one at G3, so this is a bit easier. May need a bit of time to settle in, but has talent, $26 in this…

BET: 3 units ew

Marble Nine

Flemington R6

Very consistent, and though this fav looks hard to beat, our lad can feature at $15.

BET: 3 units ew

Berkshire Breeze, Glentaneous

Flemington R7

BB is another consistent animal, and the jump to 2800m looks enticing as he does tend to sit back and finish fast, so the $5 on offer makes him a dead-set EW bet.

Glentaneous will need to improve somewhat to figure in this at $61.

BET: 5 units ew

Chorlton Lane

Flemington R8

Ditto this former Kiwi, though finding it hard to win this time round. Been up for a while but has placed 2 from 2 at the mile, EW as $7 second fav.

BET: 4 units ew

Feathertop

Scone R2

Classy Irish mare who won second-up in Aus in September with a big finish. Came out a month later but surprisingly never emerged and ran last, maybe with an issue. Resumed from that six month break six weeks ago, catching the eye with a huge run from last to run second at big odds over the 1350, so the switch back to the mile ticked a lot of boxes 24 days ago and she ran a close-up fourth. Certainly moving in the right direction and fancy she’ll play a role here today at the nice $13.

BET: 5 units ew

Sonofdec

Scone R4

Close third resuming 14 days ago, will be better for that, EW at $19.

BET: 3 units ew

Gentileschi

Scone R5

Resumed 15 days ago after 4 months, back in grade from the G3 Summer Cup she duly obliged as fav. This is harder but now she’s got the idea she can feature, up to 1700m suits, $8.50 in an open betting race.

BET: 3 units ew

Compelling Truth

Scone R8

A simply superb effort from Compelling Truth 16 days ago, sitting just off the pace as we predicted hitting the front and sprinting away for a cracking win at $6 to make it two in a row. On-pacer, great stats (22:11-4) and though up in grade he’s 2:2 in the class, great EW punt at $9.

BET: 5 units ew

Coin Toss

Doomben R4

Ex-HK, does have second-up form and 3:1-2 at the distance so can’t totally discount at $15.

BET: 3 units ew

Midnight In Tokyo

Doomben R7

Resuming after 140 days and is 6:1-4 first-up and 8:3-4 at the track, EW at $14.

BET: 3 units ew

I Am Velvet

Morphettville R7

IAV resumed from a 144 day break in April, and won well. She won her first three races then competed well twice at G3 level. She’s a filly going places based on this win, took control at the final bend and ridden out fairly comfortably, so we expected a repeat 22 days ago at Flem but she didn’t jump well and ran last. Back to BM72 here and worth another chance as $3.20 second fav.

BET: 8 unit win

Deepfloat Diva

Morphettville R8

Very tidy stats (12:4-4), good T&Ds and always thereabouts, rates highly as an EW punt at $5…

BET: 5 units ew

Orthies

Kembla Grange R4

Won on debut then ran a close third and a fourth, should figure prominently in this at $2.70.

BET: 8 unit win

Rose Noir

Toowoomba R6

Only two wins to show for her 13 runs but if she gets to the front and can tough it out, she should be winning this as $1.70 fav.

BET: 10 unit win

Sebonack

Belmont R3

On the face of it he shouldn’t be a factor in this but is dropping in grade on his WA debut. He’s 4:2-2 at the distance and 5:2-2 first-up and McGruddy has ridden him in two recent trials. Keep safe at $23…

BET: 3 units ew

Famous Dain

Belmont R4

Gave ‘em a spanking at Albany 9 days ago and Pikey jumping on just adds to his appeal. Up to 2100m will suit, and while he’s done nothing at this track, he’ll be hard to beat today as $1.90 fav.

BET: 10 unit win

Fire

Selangor R7

Going well, well worth an EW bet in this.

BET: 3 units ew

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