Saturday 17th February 2024
A compelling winner!!
We waited 13 months for him to resume and Compelling Truth obliged at Dubbo 12 days ago. Up in grade yesterday, but we were confident he could win again, and boy, did he deliver, absolutely spanking ‘em by 5 lengths with a leg in the air. 10 unit win at $3.10, and he anchored us to the $507 qadi!
Boy gave it a good go but was not able to hold out the hot fav in The Chopper, but the 10 unit quinella was a consolation at $1.90.
Wasn’t keen on the ride by Kah on Greyt Mumma, a 955m dash at the Valley requires you to be on-pace, of which she is capable, yet she dropped out the back and couldn’t get close to them, finishing well back and denying us the late qadi there…
Bit of a shout for Kalahari Heart, was well out in the betting, and it’s been a while since he won, but he did finish on well yesterday, and we feel he’s on the improve… next time for sure, possibly over longer…
A massive 28 from the book today, and we’re confident of plenty of winners, let’s have a look, NZ first, Aussie after that…
Best of NZ today…
ORCHESTRAL, JUST AS SHARP, TOKYO TYCOON
Ellerslie, 6
Obviously going to be very difficult to beat the odds-on Orchestral in this, looks like the rise to 2100m will suit, but our two are very capable of filling out the exotics, both at around the $10 mark. Their recent runs have been in higher grades, which makes them good EW bets in this.
BET: Orchestral 10 unit win, other two 3 units ew, exotics
DARK DESTROYER, ESS VEE ARE
Ellerslie, 7
Avondale Cup time at Ellerslie today, and with a $7.00 fav, this is wide open. Our two are at $26 and $51, DD won his only race here and Weatherley is 8:4-2 up top, and he jumps off SVR, which may be of significance. SVR’s second to Terra Mitica on resuming was promising, but he hasn’t backed it up…
BET: DD 3 units ew, SVR 2 units ew, would spice up exotics…
LET FLY
Ellerslie, 8
Firm ground the key for this lass, won well at Ruakaka two back, and Kelly Myers jumps back onboard. Watch for her late, $19 looks value…
BET: 4 units ew
HENRY HUBBER
Invercargill, 4
Back in grade a touch, up in distance, recent form good and does like this track (9:2-4), rates a good EW bet at $5.
BET: 5 units ew
MORE THAN WORDS
Invercargill, 6
Went in the book April last year with a good third and has subsequently saluted three times for us. Good stats, another one value at $9.
BET: 4 units ew
LOCHNABERRY
Invercargill, 7
Won a couple for us late last year before hopping up in grade. Back to the BM85 but up to 2600m, could feature late at $17.
BET: 3 units ew
LADY SASS
Invercargill, 8
Nice win at Otaki on Boxing Day, trainer likes her. Raced at G1 and G3 next, at odds but not far off. May need some give in the ground, watch for late at $6.
BET: 4 units ew
LA OPCION
Invercargill, 9
Broke a long drought under Tina 9 days ago this T&D after a nice second at Gore, running away by over 4 lengths. Tina jumps ship but still a shot at $8.
BET: 4 units ew
THE GREY GOOSE
Invercargill, 10
Rarely far away, gets back but possesses a decent finish. Drawn in the carpark but she’ll tuck in at the back and hopefully finish over them late on, $7 on offer…
BET: 4 units ew
Best of Aussie today…
BIFROST
Flemington, 2
Nice third last time out, maybe a place for the Ex-Kiwi at $12…
BET: 2 units ew
ETERNAL FLAME
Flemington, 5
Boomed home 22 days ago to win by 4 lengths, up in grade but worth following, jockey’s 5:2-1 up top, $5.50 on offer.
BET: 5 units ew
MOLLYNICKERS
Flemington, 6
Very cruisy when noted winning at Caulfield in July, and subsequent two runs up in grade have been more than worthy. Does resume after 140 day break but has nice first=up stats, $3.70 fav.
BET: 8 unit win
JIMMYSSTAR
Flemington, 9
Whizzing through the grades, bound for better things, wins again, sell the farm… $1.45
BET: 10 unit win
HE’S OUR BONNEVAL
Flemington, 10
Second-up where he has a good record, resuming run here 28 days ago produced a juicy second for us at SP $19. BIg field with some handy beasts but he’s a good EW bet at $9.
BET: 4 units ew
SWITZERLAND
Randwick, 1
When the gap finally appeared here 21 days ago, he bolted through it impressively, the extra 100m won’t bother him… If you have another farm, sell that too… $1.70 fav
BET: 10 unit win
C’EST MAGIQUE
Randwick, 6
She was brilliant on debut and has raced in higher grades for a few placings, but has had her issues, including a 308 day spell. Resumes today after 3 months, and an attractive EW bet at $6.
BET: 5 units ew
LEARNING TO FLY, KRISTILLI
Randwick, 8
LTF went in the book this week last year with a storming finish from last in a 16 horse field and followed that up with a G2 win three weeks later. Fell in her next race at Rosehill in March and was lucky to survive, but here she is resuming with some very good trials under her belt. Good enough to win this, $4.20 co-fav, get onboard! Kristilli’s also had some big breaks, but has talent, can fill the exotics at $18.
BET: LTF 10 unit win, K 3 units ew, exotics
BLUE SPINEL
Eagle Farm, 4
Came back in good order to make it 3 form her last 4 here a month back, up in grade but the one to beat as $2.80 fav.
BET: 10 unit win
GRAYSONG
Morphettville, 3
Superb win from the back in August and has gone well up in grade since, nice return at MV 15 days ago, can feature in this open betting event at $6.50.
BET: 5 units ew
HAYAI MESU
Morphettville, 4
Going well for the new stable, nice finish for second 2 weeks back at Morks, can win this at $5.50.
BET: 5 units ew
LITTLE RICH BOY
Morphettville, 8
Gee, he was gritty 10 days ago, hanging on for a long-overdue win. This is harder but Dom sticks, EW at $17.
BET: 3 units ew
VADABOOM
Gold Coast, 2
Not been going well, resumes as a $5 shot in a small field here.
BET: 3 unit win
WINSTON BLUE
Gold Coast, 3
Does pop up on occasion for us, well beaten two in this prep, capable of a late finish, small win bet at $17.
BET: 3 unit win
FANTASY EAGLE
Alice Springs, 5
Resumes after a 126 day spell, plenty of good stats, $5 in another small field.
BET: 5 unit win
