Saturday 17th August 2024
Next time…
Just a second from yesterday’s three…
Baltic Coast (5 units ew) resumed from a three month spell, though he may need the run, and he does tend to get back early, which he did yesterday after jumping well, and at the turn you’d have thought he was done, but he powered home, and while the winner had stolen a march, BC had the rest covered nicely, paying $1.70 for the place. Certainly a next-timer performance, especially if they get him up over a bit more ground…
OK, big Saturday of racing calls, two meetings here and a dozen over the ditch, let’s get the NZ tips up first (4), Aussie to follow (22)…
Four from NZ today…
Five Bells
New Plymouth R1
We thought she was a genuine chance 13 days ago at Hawera after her previous storming finish at Otaki in late July, but she didn’t settle well and the jockey got her tied up on the fence, and she came home well when it was too late. A bit green but put a next-time tag on her, so looking for a better ride today with the Mudman onboard and out to the 1800m. $23 sleeper, watch for her late…
BET: 3 units ew
Double Take
New Plymouth R7
Former HK galloper who found his best form under Joe Nishizuka two weeks ago at Ruakaka, he’s now 2:1-1 up top and sticks today. Jumps in grade but back to the mile where he’s 16:2-5, $12 makes him a nice EW punt in a very open betting race…
BET: 3 units ew
Shamus
Ruakaka R5
Sandwiched a win in between two fourths behind Malt Time here. Jockey is 1:1 onboard, jumps in grade, goes well on any ground, another EW bet in an open race. Former G2 winner, $4.80 on offer.
BET: 3 units ew
Let Fly
Ruakaka R8
Noted in Nov when blocked for a run and a cert beaten. Since then she won and placed in four races, before racing up in grade at Ellerslie then heading for a spell. Resumed here late June, and ripped home from the back for third, and we really fancied her 35 days ago here even though she was up in grade and distance, but she jumped near last ans stayed there. Back to the mile today, back in grade, and her T&D stats are top notch, plus she gets the top of the ground conditions she relishes and Myers is 4:1-3 up top. Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick! $4.60 on offer, all over her today!
BET: 5 units ew
And 22 from Aussie today…
Rise At Dawn
Caulfield R2
Rise At Dawn is a real on-pacer, very consistent, super T&Ds and Stackhouse booted him home for us in a powerful display at Flem 14 days ago. Up in grade and Stackhouse jumps shop to Devoted who finished well on the same day for second in this grade, while the other chance in this, Rhapsody Chic, is going through the grades nicely, with four wins in a row this prep. Race in three, but we stick we our lad as $2.00 fav.
BET: 10 unit win
Cap De Joie
Caulfield R3
Back from a huge 455 day break, and previous form was superb, so obviously some issues there, and hard to assess how she’s returned, but there is talent there (11:3-5) and M Zahra up top means some respect must be given, so it’s an EW punt at $10, and a very interested eye on her performance today…
BET: 3 units ew
Bifrost
Caulfield R4
Finally broke through for a long-awaited win three weeks ago at Geelong, this time with an uncharacteristic run on-pace, but up in grade here might prove a touch too hard for the former Kiwi gelding… $26 outsider.
BET: 2 units ew
Pinstriped, Aegon, Bankers Choice
Caulfield R8
Pinstriped has show nothing in his last three, disturbed by a couple of breaks in the paddocks. Races in high class company, good stats all round, but may need the run today, $6.50 on offer.
Aegon’s run in Aussie, NZ and HK, and also returns from a 6 month spell. Handy stats, though his good form is questionable (15:0-1), could be a place at $17.
Bankers Choice is back from a 259 day spell, not a known first-upper but did run second in a G2 in his last race. Capable on his day but this looks a tad short at this stage, $51 shot.
BET: PS 3 units ew, other two 2 units ew, could fill places in the exotics, but top three in betting look hard to beat…
Getafix
Rosehill R1
Needed the resuming run at Rosehill a month ago, but liked the way he stuck to his guns under McEvoy, who sticks today. Fitter, and we reckon he goes close today, $5.50 in a small field.
BET: 8 unit win
Lisztomania
Rosehill R3
Caught the eye with huge burst from the back a month ago at Rosehill to run fourth, and duly noted. He’s back again, the extra 200m suits very well, and this looks a race in two even in this big field. $4.00/$1.90 makes him an easy EW wager.
BET: 5 units ew, 10 unit quinella with Intervarsity
Francesco Guardi
Rosehill R8
Returns after 301 days, will need the run but had some tidy form two years back. This will be too short but should benefit from the run, $51 on offer.
BET: 2 units ew
Indifference
Rosehill R10
Barrelled home from the back after three ordinary runs to win with something in hand, sleeper at $26…
BET: 3 units ew
Fox Gem
Morphettville R4
The ultimate late-finisher, he got up for us 14 days ago in a thrilling blanket finish, up in grade a touch but must include as a $8.50 shot. Untried on heavy though..
BET: 5 units ew
More Sugar
Morphettville R7
Bit hit and miss, might struggle in this, $8 on offer.
BET: 2 units ew
King Of The Bounty
Narrandera R6
Perennial back-marker, not why he’s back to the 1000m but feel he’s got a win in him, $6.50 in a very open field…
BET: 3 unit ew
Sacred Kiwi
Warracknabeal R6
Gone off the boil last two, maybe didn’t handle the heavy though he’s won on it before… Gets back on the soft, watch for him late, $19 on offer.
BET: 3 units ew
Red Hawk
Warracknabeal R8
Bit in and out, owes us a win, will be dropping in late as $4.40 second fav.
BET: 3 units ew
Storm De Lune
Kembla Grange R2
The fourth two back gave us a distant hope, then ran eleventh 7 days ago. $34 on offer…
BET: 2 units ew
Brilliant Mind
Cairns R6
Inconsistent this prep after racking up a few wins last time in. This might be a bit tasty, $15 shot.
BET: 2 units ew
Desert Nymph
Belmont R6
Progressing well, getting up for us at Pinjarra 16 days ago and should go well here as $8.50 third fav.
BET: 5 units ew
Wango Award
Belmont R9
Just about always in contention, especially late on, CJP sticks and she’ll be there again, $4.80 in an open event.
BET: 5 units ew
