Friday 29th September 2023
Nothing to report…
Our bubble of good form burst somewhat yesterday, with only Red Hawk making the frame, disappointingly ridden from the rear for a fast-finishing but useless fourth for us…
Big day for a Friday, with racing at Te Rapa and a couple of sell-the-farm tips, plus a night meeting at the Valley… 25 tips in all, let’s get the NZ to you first, where we have seven tips from Te Rapa… Aussie to follow…
Today’s Te Rapa Tips…
CROCETTI
Te Rapa, 1
What can you say, 3 from 3, just wins, he’s short at $1.30 but it’s better than the bank!
BET: 10 unit win
CINDY FALLS
Te Rapa, 2
Great on debut with a nice win over this trip, subsequent runs not so impressive… Gets Smilin’ Joe up top but may v=need the run, $15 shot.
BET: 2 units ew
LANEWAY FLIRTING
Te Rapa, 3
Signed off last prep with a couple of nice wins for us, two runs this time in have been plain, can do better, $23 shot.
BET: 2 units ew
JACK IN THE BOX
Te Rapa, 4
He’s been next-timed a few times but remains a maiden after 18 goes. Returns from 8 month spell and another who probably needs the run, $34 on offer…
BET: 2 units ew
QUEEN SARABI
Te Rapa, 6
Beautifully timed run from the back a month ago here, would prefer her over the 2400m again but Kozzi sticks and she’s a live EW chance at $9.50.
BET: 4 units ew
PEARL OF ALSACE
Te Rapa, 7
Got way too far back when resuming at Ruakaka, won’t make the same mistake today as $1.80 fav. Another sell-the-farm tip…
BET: 10 unit win
LITTLE JOE
Te Rapa, 8
Better second up with a big finish for fourth at Cambridge where we spruiked him for a place at $22. Little Joe gets Smilin’ Joe again, and if he tucks in closer in the run, he’s an EW shot at $14…
BET: 3 units ew
Today’s Aussie tips…
RUSSIAN DANCER
Moonee Valley, 1
Noted with a tough win at Pak in Feb and has won twice for us since. Only missed a place on one of nine runs, which was his debut. We suggested it was a bit short for him resuming 16 days ago, and that was the case as he never really got into it but his second-up form, a step back up to 1500m and a significant drop in grade all point to a better showing here today. Billy Pinn jumps on, and he could be the sleeper in this at $17…
BET: 4 units ew
UNFLINCHING, FETCH
Moonee Valley, 4
The betting suggests this is a race in two, and Unflinching just gets the nod from us. He’s a very quick frontrunner, stats up the yin-yang, ace draw over 955m at the Valley? Very hard to catch, and Billy’s onboard this one too, $3.20 looks like good money… Fetch possesses some great stats herself, and would be top pick if Unflinching wasn’t in this. She’s the $3.70 second fav, squat quinella…
BET: Unflinching 10 unit win, 10 unit quinella with Fetch.
PAPILLON CLUB
Moonee Valley, 6
Noted with an impressive win on New Year’s Day and has won twice and performed well since at G2 and G3 levels. Back up to the mile will suit, she can get on the pace under Williams, who’s 2:2 up top and is a $9 third fav to take out this hotpot fav.
BET: 4 units ew
ASFOORA
Moonee Valley, 7
Classy mare with a super record. Not sure she can get past Imperatriz but can certainly make the frame as a $7.50 shot.
BET: 5 units ew
LET’S SEA
Benalla, 5
Former Kiwi who’s done well in Aus, two wins and two seconds in six runs there. Noted with a gritty win in November. Finished fast for a close fourth, suggesting that the longer trip today will suit. Nice odds at $9, and well worth an EW punt.
BET: 5 units ew
VARDANI, ESS VEE ARE
Benalla, 8
Vardani back in grade significantly today, and goes back up to 2100m, which should also suit. Mertens hops on, chance at $8.50. SVR was in good form at the end of last prep but has done very little on resuming. Another one that could benefit from the longer trip, but he’ll need to improve as a $61 outsider…
BET: Vardani 4 units ew, SVR 2 units ew, could spice up the exotics…
KATTEGAT
Moruya, 5
Spaces his wins out, but on-pacer with very good all round stats for this, especially T&D. $5.50 in a small field.
BET: 6 unit win
HASTY DUCHESS
Moruya, 8
Been a while since she won, and stats don’t really stack up. Back in grade on resumption, but third fav at $6 in an open betting race.
BET: 3 units ew
KNIFE’S EDGE
Dubbo, 4
Good T&Ds for this, back in grade a touch, and going well this prep. Capable of a big finish, this is a bit shorter but if they have him closer to the pace, he can finish over the top of these, $3.60 second fav.
BET: 6 unit win
MR INVINCIBLE
Dubbo, 6
Nice win under Ollie on debut last November, but three subsequent runs at BM64 haven’t lived up to that. Resumes after a 9 month spell in an easier grade, and a $9 shot. Maybe a place…
BET: 3 units ew
RAGING RUSH
Dubbo, 7
Noted with a huge finish from last to first in Feb, followed it up 11 days later with a win at Quirindi and finished the prep with another win for us at Narromine. Good stats in his limited career Jake P-H sticks, and he rates a great EW punt as second fav at $4.80.
BET: 5 units ew
SACHEM
Coleraine, 8
Noted in June last year with a huge run from last to win with a leg in the air and has gone well since. Has placed 3 form 5 first up, and fav jockey Yendall is 3:1-2 onboard and is a significant booking. All over him at $6!
BET: 5 units ew
