Friday 14th July 2023
Boomshanka!
Ain’t it great when a plan comes together?
We certainly earned bragging rights yesterday as we confidently predicted a $34 shot to bring home the bacon in true PG’s Tips style:
BEL ACADEMY
Grafton, 8
He was in a rich vein of form two years back, finishing in the frame in eight consecutive races before an 8 month spell in the paddock. Obviously encountered some kind of issue as he ran last and next to last this time last year, and returns today from almost that year away. But, he won a trial here by 5 lengths 11 days ago, Raymond Spokes sticks… Absolute on-pacer, and today’s sleeper, we’re gonna spruik him up at $31…
BET: 5 units ew
He shot to the front from the wide draw and burst away from them at the final bend, and they just never got near him as he won with a leg in the air at $27.80/$5.70. Trifecta was a healthy $1624, and we had him in the qadi, just a pity that three favs won the first three legs, otherwise we’d have been looking at a far bigger dividend than $695. No complaints though!
In a similar vein, Coco Rox (8 unit win), another on-pacer, took out the first leg by 3 lengths at $2.90 as we book-ended the qadi for you…
We also threw in a third in former HK galloper Double Take, who finished fast to place at $2.80, he’s a watch for next time…
Thirteen again on Matariki/Bastille Day from the book, let’s dive in!
Thirteen on a holiday Friday…
CAPITAL GIRL
Mackay, 4
Noted winning her only race back in December, not much since but last few runs suggest she’s capable on her day. On a quick six day backup however, and she’s just switched barns, so a chance here at $10
BET: 4 units ew
ORNATE
Mackay, 5
Won well in a small field after sitting out the back early, and while she spaces her wins out, she’s generally thereabouts and has good stats for this. Chance at $13, will be there late…
BET: 3 units ew
UNASSAILABLE, SUCH A WHIT, DEMURRAL
Mackay, 6
Unassailable is three from three at this T&D, has won second-up and jockey is 2 from 3 up top. Looks like a good EW bet at $9. SAW has placed the last two at nice odds, but it’s been a while since he last won. Still an EW shot at $10. Demurral did nothing on resumption bit other stats are good, $21 shot in this.
BET: Unassailable 4 units ew, SAW 3 units ew, D 2 units ew, exotics obviously…
FORTIFIED
Mackay, 8
Has been close-up in his last three, and he has the stats to be in the finish here at $17. Whiteley sticks, watch for him late.
BET: 4 units ew
GORUSH LIGHTNING
Moruya, 6
Placed the last two and though up in grade today is a chance in this. Good stats though, and still a chance at $8, another one with a late finish.
BET: 4 units ew
JAFFASTOCK
Moruya, 7
Won two in a row for us last year but has been some way off since. Resumes after 6 months away, has first-up form, and trialled for this under Nick Heywood, who sticks today for the new stable. $5.50 on offer.
BET: 4 units ew
OENOLOGY, MOSCOW RED
Geelong, 7
Oenology is generally well-supported and rates a chance here in an open betting race at $5. Moscow Red’s form has dropped right away after a good run this time last year. Yet another late finisher, and an outsider’s chance at $34 back at his fav distance and down in grade.
BET: O 4 units ew, MT 2 units ew
JET JITSU, KEW PLAYER
Geelong, 9
JJ has missed the first four just once in his last nine and resumes here today after a 5 month break. He’s 3:1-2 first up, Coffey is 6:3-2 onboard, should be right in this as $5.50 second fav. Another late finisher as is Kew Player, we spruiked him as better than his recent form suggested, and he obliged with a third at $10 SP.
BET: JJ 5 units ew, KP 3 units ew, exotics
RED HAWK
Bairnsdale, 8
Bolted in by 6 lengths on debut almost two years ago, but hadn’t replicated that since, but was back two weeks ago after 4 months off, and ran second in a trial. Fronted as a drifting fav and ran a close second for the new barn, so rates as an EW shot at $4.80 in this.
BET: 5 units ew
